Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | SFA -500 ACU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +1 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -9.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (-23.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -7.6 (-8.6) | 148.2 (-23.2) | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -8.8 (-9.8) | 145.5 (-20.5) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -7.8 (-8.8) | 146.4 (-21.4) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -7.4 (-8.4) | 147.7 (-22.7) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | SFA 76 – 66 ACU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | SFA 62 – 57 ACU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SFA 60 – 57 ACU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | SFA 79 – 74 ACU |
| Feb 23, 2023 | SFA 91 – 87 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#147) | -5.1 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#166) | -0.84 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#141) | -0.85 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#174) | 0.450 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.0% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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