Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | SFA -175 ACU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +3 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -3.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (-26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -4.0 (-1.0) | 142.5 (-25.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -2.6 (+0.4) | 140.6 (-23.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -2.4 (+0.6) | 140.4 (-23.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -2.4 (+0.6) | 142.8 (-25.8) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | SFA 76 – 66 ACU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | SFA 62 – 57 ACU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | ACU 63 – 62 SFA |
| Dec 2, 2023 | SFA 79 – 74 ACU |
| Feb 23, 2023 | SFA 91 – 87 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#160) | -3.3 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#173) | -0.24 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#151) | -0.28 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#185) | 0.473 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.4% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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