Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | ACU +130 SFA -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +5 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | ACU -0.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -0.0 (-5.0) | 144.8 (+8.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -1.3 (-3.7) | 143.5 (+9.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -0.2 (-4.8) | 144.4 (+8.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -0.8 (-4.2) | 145.6 (+7.4) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | SFA 76 – 66 ACU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | SFA 62 – 57 ACU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SFA 60 – 57 ACU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | ACU 63 – 62 SFA |
| Feb 23, 2023 | SFA 91 – 87 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#180) | 5.2 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#170) | 0.51 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#181) | 1.34 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#126) | 0.540 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.5% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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