Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | ACU -110 SFA +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +4 | 178 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -0.2 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (+28.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -0.1 (-3.9) | 149.0 (+29.0) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -0.2 (-3.8) | 146.2 (+31.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -0.4 (-4.4) | 150.3 (+27.7) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -0.1 (-3.9) | 152.4 (+25.6) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | SFA 76 – 66 ACU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | SFA 62 – 57 ACU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SFA 60 – 57 ACU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | ACU 63 – 62 SFA |
| Dec 2, 2023 | SFA 79 – 74 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-17 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#203) | 2.3 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#197) | 0.43 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#184) | 0.43 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#203) | 0.532 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 24.5% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.8% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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