The black queen chants the funeral march, the cracked brass bells will ring / To summon back the fire witch to the court of the crimson king "The Court of the Crimson King" - King Crimson
Western Athletic Conference · Moody Coliseum (Abilene) · February 23, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread ACU -1.5 Away covered
O/U 150.5 Over
Money ACU -110 / SFA +110
Model Predictions
Spread Total ACU win
Actual SFA +4 178 Lost
Massey SFA -0.2 (-3.8)
Massey Totals 150.0 (+28.0)
Bradley-Terry 50%
Weighted B-T 53%
Efficiency Plus ML SFA -0.2 (-3.8) 146.2 (+31.8) 45%
Baseline Tuned ML ACU -0.4 (-4.4) 150.3 (+27.7) 51%
Baseline ML SFA -0.1 (-3.9) 152.4 (+25.6) 48%
Baseline Plus ML SFA -0.1 (-3.9) 149.0 (+29.0) 48%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 15, 2025 SFA 7666 ACU
Dec 31, 2024 SFA 6257 ACU
Mar 14, 2024 SFA 6057 ACU
Feb 17, 2024 ACU 6362 SFA
Dec 2, 2023 SFA 7974 ACU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ACU SFA
Overall 13-17 19-13
Conference 7-11 11-7
Home 10-5 12-4
Away 5-8 6-5
Neutral 0-4 1-4
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L6 L3
Avg Pts For 71.2 74.1
Avg Pts Against 74.9 72.7
Massey -1.5 (#203) 2.3 (#131)
Bradley-Terry -0.22 (#197) 0.43 (#132)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.18 (#184) 0.43 (#136)
RPI 0.486 (#203) 0.532 (#115)
Shooting & Four Factors ACU SFA
FG% 44.7% 46.2%
3PT% 36.0% 39.1%
REB / G 29.2 33.3
OREB / G 8.8 11.0
AST / TO 1.22 0.91
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.6% 51.8%
TOV% 17.4% 21.6%
ORB% 25.4% 32.9%
FT Rate 23.4% 28.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 56.5% 51.8%
Opp TOV% 23.6% 24.5%
DRB% 69.8% 67.6%
Opp FT Rate 33.8% 28.9%

Game Analysis

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