Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | ACU -185 SFA +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +5 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | ACU -1.8 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -4.2 (-9.2) | 129.0 (-10.0) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -1.6 (-6.6) | 127.9 (-8.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -2.5 (-7.5) | 129.2 (-10.2) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -2.6 (-7.6) | 127.2 (-8.2) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | SFA 76 – 66 ACU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SFA 60 – 57 ACU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | ACU 63 – 62 SFA |
| Dec 2, 2023 | SFA 79 – 74 ACU |
| Feb 23, 2023 | SFA 91 – 87 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-8 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#267) | -3.1 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#192) | -1.13 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#190) | -1.43 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#207) | 0.474 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 28.9 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 14.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 27.1% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 40.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.7% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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