Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | SFA -320 ACU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +10 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -26.9 (-16.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -24.2 (-14.2) | 142.6 (-0.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -23.0 (-13.0) | 142.2 (-0.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -18.9 (-8.9) | 143.0 (-1.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2024 | SFA 62 – 57 ACU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SFA 60 – 57 ACU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | ACU 63 – 62 SFA |
| Dec 2, 2023 | SFA 79 – 74 ACU |
| Feb 23, 2023 | SFA 91 – 87 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 20-2 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-1 | 9-5 |
| Away | 12-4 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#22) | -4.2 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#11) | 0.26 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.66 (#12) | 0.17 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.719 (#32) | 0.438 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.3% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 44.1% | 51.1% |
Game Analysis
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