Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -400 TA&M +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +25 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -13.2 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.8 (+14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -11.4 (+13.6) | 157.0 (+18.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -12.8 (+12.2) | 158.3 (+16.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -12.4 (+12.6) | 158.0 (+17.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -11.7 (+13.3) | 157.4 (+17.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | ALA 100 – 97 TA&M |
| Jan 12, 2025 | ALA 94 – 88 TA&M |
| Mar 12, 2023 | ALA 82 – 63 TA&M |
| Mar 4, 2023 | TA&M 67 – 61 ALA |
| Mar 3, 2022 | TA&M 87 – 71 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.1 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 20.7 (#4) | 10.8 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#16) | 1.69 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.22 (#11) | 2.37 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#10) | 0.572 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 42.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 17.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 43.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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