Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -213 TA&M +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +19 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -8.3 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -5.5 (+13.5) | 144.7 (+0.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -5.0 (+14.0) | 146.1 (-1.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -6.5 (+12.5) | 144.2 (+0.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -6.8 (+12.2) | 142.3 (+2.7) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | ALA 100 – 97 TA&M |
| Jan 12, 2025 | ALA 94 – 88 TA&M |
| Feb 17, 2024 | ALA 100 – 75 TA&M |
| Mar 4, 2023 | TA&M 67 – 61 ALA |
| Mar 3, 2022 | TA&M 87 – 71 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-0 | 15-1 |
| Away | 9-3 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 20.8 (#2) | 12.5 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.55 (#2) | 2.43 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.09 (#2) | 2.78 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.663 (#1) | 0.588 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 44.2 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 35.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.7% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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