We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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49–15 on winners spread MAE 8.1 64 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Temple @ Florida Atlantic +18.1 150.8 89% 68–80 ✓
SMU @ Tulane -3.1 157.0 36% 87–79 ✓
Wichita State @ East Carolina +0.7 137.4 51% 55–68 ✓
UTSA @ Charlotte +13.8 146.7 87% 70–79 ✓
Towson @ William & Mary -7.3 132.9 24% 61–52 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ UNC Wilmington +17.0 146.7 91% 54–73 ✓
Hofstra @ Drexel +2.9 132.4 61% 77–79 ✓
Delaware @ Elon -7.2 144.1 22% 67–73 ✗
Charleston @ Northeastern -2.3 153.2 37% 77–73 ✓
Campbell @ Monmouth +7.6 143.4 80% 87–88 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Le Moyne -0.1 141.3 54% 64–69 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Long Island University +0.1 150.3 49% 84–82 ✗
Merrimack @ Stonehill -10.8 133.6 14% 66–63 ✓
Wagner @ Saint Francis -2.9 126.7 35% 65–63 ✓
Louisiana @ Old Dominion -6.1 142.0 26% 68–60 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina +1.0 153.5 58% 75–82 ✓
New Hampshire @ Vermont +7.9 136.4 76% 54–70 ✓
Maine @ Bryant +4.7 138.7 72% 72–77 ✓
NJIT @ UAlbany +6.3 147.1 71% 58–83 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Louisiana Tech +11.6 132.4 86% 58–63 ✓
UTEP @ Western Kentucky +5.6 145.2 73% 80–90 ✓
Abilene Christian @ UT Rio Grande Valley -0.3 145.4 48% 87–79 ✓
Florida International @ Sam Houston +7.0 147.1 79% 56–70 ✓
New Mexico State @ Middle Tennessee +0.1 134.3 47% 69–76 ✓
Memphis @ North Texas +2.4 139.3 61% 66–76 ✓
Winthrop @ Radford -0.3 142.9 47% 85–69 ✓
Morehead State @ Little Rock -3.4 141.4 40% 68–69 ✗
Texas State @ South Alabama +0.5 136.0 54% 55–72 ✓
Georgia State @ James Madison +14.1 152.7 88% 63–83 ✓
South Dakota @ Omaha +8.1 153.3 82% 84–91 ✓
South Dakota State @ Kansas City +0.6 145.6 54% 67–72 ✓
North Dakota State @ Oral Roberts +3.7 152.8 63% 73–60 ✗
Tarleton State @ UT Arlington +1.9 142.4 52% 80–78 ✗
Minnesota @ Purdue +17.2 149.6 89% 76–84 ✓
Western Illinois @ Tennessee Tech -2.8 130.4 38% 62–55 ✓
Southern Indiana @ UT Martin +9.0 150.8 80% 68–77 ✓
Lindenwood @ SIU Edwardsville +9.4 135.2 86% 63–91 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Eastern Illinois +6.5 132.2 74% 57–75 ✓
UL Monroe @ Southern Miss +7.1 144.0 78% 68–59 ✗
Arkansas State @ Troy +6.4 155.5 78% 82–71 ✗
Austin Peay @ Central Arkansas -5.5 144.1 34% 77–67 ✓
Seattle U @ Southern Utah -2.4 146.7 43% 78–68 ✓
Lipscomb @ North Alabama +0.7 155.6 60% 70–75 ✓
Stanford @ Washington +5.1 160.2 70% 65–85 ✓
Colorado @ UCLA -0.5 134.6 53% 60–64 ✗
Gonzaga @ Loyola Marymount -11.5 148.7 16% 91–74 ✓
North Dakota @ Denver +3.9 158.5 64% 92–78 ✗
Utah Tech @ Grand Canyon +18.0 147.3 90% 61–73 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Davis +2.1 147.5 61% 78–74 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State +1.1 132.7 46% 73–58 ✗
Weber State @ Idaho -6.5 139.3 26% 70–69 ✓
Idaho State @ Eastern Washington +9.3 147.7 83% 82–88 ✓
California @ Washington State +10.5 143.9 84% 65–84 ✓
Pacific @ Santa Clara +17.1 150.7 90% 53–79 ✓
Portland @ San Diego +7.3 152.9 81% 66–71 ✓
Utah Valley @ California Baptist +2.5 131.9 57% 69–46 ✗
Hawai'i @ Cal Poly -6.5 135.2 26% 80–51 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Bakersfield -0.1 141.6 45% 76–71 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC San Diego +7.2 146.6 79% 46–61 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Fullerton +2.0 132.3 61% 81–73 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Portland State +0.1 155.7 47% 72–82 ✓
Pepperdine @ Saint Mary's +19.3 135.5 90% 59–103 ✓
Utah @ USC -2.1 151.2 47% 64–68 ✗
Harvard @ Cornell +10.8 151.0 83% 62–75 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.