Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | NE +155 COFC -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +4 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | COFC -2.7 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -2.2 (-1.8) | 149.5 (+0.5) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -4.4 (+0.4) | 150.4 (-0.4) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -2.5 (-1.5) | 150.4 (-0.4) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -2.3 (-1.7) | 153.2 (-3.2) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | COFC 89 – 84 NE |
| Feb 21, 2025 | COFC 73 – 62 NE |
| Jan 18, 2025 | COFC 87 – 85 NE |
| Feb 14, 2023 | COFC 99 – 63 NE |
| Jan 21, 2023 | COFC 87 – 61 NE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NE | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 7-5 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-13 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#225) | 2.9 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#228) | 0.91 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#220) | 1.02 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#218) | 0.543 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NE | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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