Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -8000 PEPP +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +44 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -20.2 (+23.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.7 (+30.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -19.9 (+24.1) | 133.3 (+28.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -16.9 (+27.1) | 134.6 (+27.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -19.3 (+24.7) | 135.5 (+26.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -19.7 (+24.3) | 134.9 (+27.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | SMC 88 – 60 PEPP |
| Dec 31, 2025 | SMC 72 – 45 PEPP |
| Mar 11, 2025 | SMC 74 – 59 PEPP |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SMC 74 – 50 PEPP |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SMC 71 – 41 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 5-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-8 |
| Away | 9-0 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.2 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#22) | -3.0 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#44) | -0.91 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#49) | -0.87 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#33) | 0.446 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 39.2% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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