Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UTA -175 TAR +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +2 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | UTA -3.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -2.4 (-4.4) | 141.2 (+16.8) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -1.8 (-3.8) | 141.4 (+16.6) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -1.9 (-3.9) | 142.4 (+15.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -1.4 (-3.4) | 141.8 (+16.2) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UTA 65 – 60 TAR |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UTA 71 – 64 TAR |
| Dec 30, 2025 | TAR 69 – 63 UTA |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UTA 67 – 57 TAR |
| Jan 5, 2025 | TAR 77 – 74 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 16-4 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#156) | 0.7 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#170) | 0.91 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#156) | 1.06 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#170) | 0.552 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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