Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | TROY -275 ARST +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +11 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -5.8 (-16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -6.7 (-17.7) | 156.7 (-3.7) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -6.3 (-17.3) | 153.9 (-0.9) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -6.4 (-17.4) | 155.5 (-2.5) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -5.7 (-16.7) | 156.4 (-3.4) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | TROY 99 – 74 ARST |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ARST 86 – 74 TROY |
| Mar 10, 2025 | TROY 94 – 81 ARST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | TROY 71 – 70 ARST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ARST 84 – 78 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#133) | 0.0 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#142) | -0.44 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#130) | -0.24 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#121) | 0.472 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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