Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -700 TEX +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +21 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -13.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (+12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -12.4 (+8.6) | 130.6 (+12.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -11.6 (+9.4) | 135.1 (+7.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -12.5 (+8.5) | 134.5 (+8.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -12.7 (+8.3) | 134.4 (+8.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2024 | HOU 76 – 72 TEX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-5 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 17-0 | 14-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.6 | 68.9 |
| Massey | 23.3 (#1) | 13.1 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.39 (#3) | 1.79 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.26 (#3) | 2.24 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.657 (#2) | 0.572 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.0% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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