Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | TEX +163 HOU -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +4 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -9.9 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.4 (+20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -6.4 (+2.4) | 127.2 (+20.8) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -7.7 (+3.7) | 131.8 (+16.2) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -7.1 (+3.1) | 130.4 (+17.6) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -6.5 (+2.5) | 131.3 (+16.7) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2024 | HOU 82 – 61 TEX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 32-5 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-4 | 17-0 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.9 | 57.6 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#43) | 24.6 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#54) | 3.50 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#60) | 4.66 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#71) | 0.662 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 39.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 41.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 26.1% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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