Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | USA +120 ARST -154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +3 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -1.9 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -1.6 (-1.4) | 154.1 (-5.1) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -1.4 (-1.6) | 153.0 (-4.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -1.7 (-1.3) | 155.6 (-6.6) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -1.7 (-1.3) | 155.3 (-6.3) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | USA 92 – 88 ARST |
| Jan 16, 2026 | USA 91 – 87 ARST |
| Mar 9, 2025 | ARST 74 – 71 USA |
| Feb 20, 2025 | USA 60 – 56 ARST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | USA 76 – 62 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#254) | 0.6 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#220) | -0.27 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#224) | -0.03 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#241) | 0.485 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.