Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | BU -150 NAVY +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +9 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | BU -5.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -3.8 (+5.2) | 131.2 (+7.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -3.8 (+5.2) | 130.2 (+8.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -4.5 (+4.5) | 130.9 (+8.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -3.6 (+5.4) | 131.5 (+7.5) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | BU 73 – 72 NAVY |
| Jan 29, 2026 | NAVY 58 – 50 BU |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NAVY 82 – 77 BU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NAVY 86 – 78 BU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | BU 87 – 65 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#297) | -9.4 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#319) | -2.52 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#311) | -2.98 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#318) | 0.372 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 43.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 78.3% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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