Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | SPU -500 SIE +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +22 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -17.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -12.7 (+9.3) | 127.4 (+0.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -11.7 (+10.3) | 124.6 (+3.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -11.1 (+10.9) | 127.2 (+0.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -12.1 (+9.9) | 126.0 (+2.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | SIE 72 – 63 SPU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SPU 70 – 65 SIE |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SIE 77 – 63 SPU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | SPU 63 – 52 SIE |
| Mar 4, 2023 | SPU 73 – 72 SIE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 3-17 |
| Home | 8-5 | 2-12 |
| Away | 8-8 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 60.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.8 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#218) | -16.6 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#248) | -2.38 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#242) | -3.12 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#217) | 0.406 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 24.5% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.1% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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