Betting Lines
| Spread | LEM -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | LEM -450 STO +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEM +8 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | LEM -12.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LEM -9.9 (-1.9) | 143.6 (-1.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEM -10.1 (-2.1) | 140.5 (+1.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LEM -9.4 (-1.4) | 140.1 (+1.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEM -10.1 (-2.1) | 141.7 (+0.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | STO 81 – 71 LEM |
| Feb 21, 2026 | STO 77 – 68 LEM |
| Jan 31, 2026 | STO 65 – 54 LEM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | STO 85 – 79 LEM |
| Jan 21, 2025 | LEM 73 – 72 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEM | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 2-14 |
| Home | 10-3 | 4-8 |
| Away | 5-14 | 0-19 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#286) | -15.5 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#303) | -3.35 (#359) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#310) | -3.97 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#311) | 0.374 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEM | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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