Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | GTWN +350 VILL -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +16 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -10.1 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -10.2 (-5.8) | 139.9 (-15.9) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -9.2 (-6.8) | 142.2 (-18.2) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -9.7 (-6.3) | 142.1 (-18.1) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -10.4 (-5.6) | 141.2 (-17.2) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | GTWN 78 – 64 VILL |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VILL 80 – 73 GTWN |
| Jan 22, 2026 | VILL 66 – 51 GTWN |
| Mar 5, 2025 | GTWN 75 – 73 VILL |
| Jan 20, 2025 | GTWN 64 – 63 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 10-10 |
| Home | 7-12 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#182) | 12.4 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#219) | 1.29 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#189) | 1.87 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#269) | 0.561 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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