The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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79–40 on winners spread MAE 9.7 119 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Michigan @ Purdue -1.0 135.9 46% 70–53 ✓
Kennesaw State @ North Florida +6.4 132.9 73% 54–69 ✓
Marist @ Rider +0.5 136.0 52% 64–76 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Siena +5.9 136.7 75% 68–62 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Robert Morris +2.9 139.7 57% 81–76 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Oakland +1.4 153.8 55% 81–86 ✓
Jacksonville @ North Alabama +2.8 137.1 64% 81–82 ✓
Stetson @ Bellarmine +3.2 138.5 64% 62–67 ✓
Texas State @ UL Monroe -4.9 134.2 30% 57–47 ✓
Little Rock @ UT Arlington +0.6 146.6 51% 66–59 ✗
Arkansas State @ Louisiana +10.6 144.1 80% 68–81 ✓
Georgia Southern @ South Alabama +6.0 141.4 70% 84–75 ✗
Marshall @ Florida International -5.9 153.2 27% 79–66 ✓
Charlotte @ Florida Atlantic +2.6 133.2 60% 53–66 ✓
Southern Miss @ UTSA +0.4 142.0 48% 64–70 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Northridge -5.1 145.3 29% 105–58 ✓
UC Davis @ UC San Diego -4.0 147.4 34% 69–89 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Riverside +5.1 128.5 58% 47–45 ✗
Cal Poly @ UC Irvine +17.5 135.8 90% 49–68 ✓
Rice @ UAB +12.9 139.3 85% 68–78 ✓
Nevada @ Wyoming -2.4 150.1 37% 64–71 ✗
South Dakota @ Western Illinois -9.9 142.6 17% 65–60 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Lipscomb +4.7 135.8 67% 79–69 ✗
Hawai'i @ Cal State Fullerton -0.8 149.6 51% 67–83 ✗
Denver @ North Dakota State +16.8 143.1 89% 58–70 ✓
North Dakota @ South Dakota State +12.5 145.5 87% 73–92 ✓
San Diego State @ Air Force -13.7 127.0 13% 98–61 ✓
Milwaukee @ Cleveland State +2.7 133.9 64% 53–64 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ UTEP +0.1 139.5 53% 74–82 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Utah Tech -11.7 141.4 14% 77–74 ✓
Houston @ Temple -9.3 129.8 20% 68–51 ✓
Kansas @ Oklahoma +3.4 140.6 69% 68–75 ✓
UConn @ Creighton +5.1 140.9 74% 66–74 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Syracuse +2.5 144.2 65% 60–78 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ American University +2.7 143.1 55% 70–71 ✓
Auburn @ South Carolina +2.6 151.6 65% 109–86 ✗
Wright State @ IU Indianapolis -14.4 143.7 13% 100–72 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Chattanooga +0.2 142.9 44% 74–66 ✗
Kent State @ Toledo +4.7 158.3 74% 74–76 ✓
James Madison @ Northeastern +5.4 138.3 71% 63–72 ✓
George Mason @ Saint Joseph's -0.3 148.6 39% 71–62 ✓
Drexel @ William & Mary -2.4 135.3 36% 79–64 ✓
Norfolk State @ Coppin State -2.1 151.5 42% 71–81 ✗
Arkansas @ Vanderbilt -10.7 154.2 20% 92–71 ✓
Delaware @ UNC Wilmington +6.6 138.0 76% 70–77 ✓
Ball State @ Ohio +4.8 152.9 71% 77–85 ✓
Baylor @ Oklahoma State -7.8 144.9 19% 81–66 ✓
Maryland @ Minnesota +5.7 146.6 68% 63–49 ✗
Stony Brook @ NJIT +3.3 140.0 62% 65–74 ✓
SMU @ UCF +0.4 136.8 50% 78–65 ✗
San José State @ New Mexico +8.6 134.1 77% 83–71 ✗
NC State @ North Carolina +6.3 145.7 75% 76–86 ✓
Lehigh @ Holy Cross +6.5 145.3 72% 75–72 ✗
Florida @ Georgia -3.2 150.6 36% 92–84 ✓
UAlbany @ New Hampshire +1.5 136.6 56% 64–71 ✓
Marshall @ Florida International -6.0 152.1 25% 89–72 ✓
VMI @ Mercer +7.5 157.3 80% 80–83 ✓
Towson @ Hofstra +4.5 143.6 65% 58–71 ✓
Weber State @ Southern Utah -4.6 157.5 33% 72–77 ✗
Montana State @ Northern Arizona -6.4 134.8 29% 58–53 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Northern Colorado -1.1 145.9 44% 82–76 ✓
Montana @ Sacramento State -0.0 127.7 50% 83–89 ✗
Providence @ Villanova +9.6 146.9 82% 56–71 ✓
La Salle @ Richmond +12.8 144.9 84% 84–78 ✗
Army @ Navy +2.7 139.2 62% 62–69 ✓
Clemson @ Florida State +6.0 140.6 77% 61–80 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Incarnate Word +3.0 136.1 61% 53–72 ✓
Troy @ Coastal Carolina +11.8 138.7 85% 65–70 ✓
Southern @ Alabama A&M +3.8 147.2 70% 58–68 ✓
Idaho State @ Portland State -0.0 130.9 58% 43–69 ✗
Texas A&M @ Ole Miss +8.2 127.2 79% 50–61 ✓
Ohio State @ Wisconsin +4.5 137.5 67% 74–62 ✗
West Virginia @ Kansas State -11.7 139.1 15% 69–47 ✓
Utah Valley @ St. John's +9.7 153.0 79% 78–96 ✓
Niagara @ Quinnipiac -0.2 128.9 47% 69–78 ✗
Duke @ Louisville +6.3 144.0 76% 65–70 ✓
Boston University @ Lafayette +12.8 150.4 86% 81–76 ✗
UT Martin @ Morehead State +17.7 138.1 89% 44–76 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Abilene Christian +15.9 140.9 85% 58–93 ✓
Georgia State @ App State -0.5 144.7 52% 61–74 ✗
Charlotte @ Florida Atlantic +3.5 132.0 63% 74–71 ✗
Southern Miss @ UTSA +0.5 140.7 48% 72–78 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Mississippi Valley State -16.6 133.2 13% 77–31 ✓
Western Carolina @ Wofford +10.7 149.4 81% 78–91 ✓
Furman @ East Tennessee State -1.3 145.5 48% 62–71 ✗
Dayton @ VCU +7.5 139.5 75% 43–66 ✓
UCLA @ Stanford +1.3 146.4 60% 72–73 ✓
Kennesaw State @ North Florida +6.3 129.9 65% 65–68 ✓
Northwestern State @ SE Louisiana +4.1 146.4 47% 73–68 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay -0.1 155.7 52% 72–87 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Robert Morris +2.9 138.2 61% 79–74 ✗
UIC @ Youngstown State -0.5 143.6 47% 77–85 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Oakland +1.4 153.7 56% 82–72 ✗
Milwaukee @ Cleveland State +2.7 133.5 66% 81–80 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee State -0.2 139.7 49% 54–65 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Belmont +12.4 148.6 86% 62–114 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Austin Peay -0.7 141.2 48% 76–70 ✓
Stetson @ Bellarmine +3.7 135.4 64% 65–76 ✓
Texas State @ UL Monroe -5.0 131.3 29% 69–63 ✓
Georgia Southern @ South Alabama +6.0 142.5 68% 48–62 ✓
Arkansas State @ Louisiana +10.8 144.2 80% 74–77 ✓
Little Rock @ UT Arlington +0.7 146.1 50% 61–66 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee -7.0 133.9 19% 82–67 ✓
Rice @ UAB +13.5 138.7 85% 74–86 ✓
San Diego @ Portland +0.8 145.9 43% 78–70 ✗
Jackson State @ Grambling +5.1 129.3 68% 75–61 ✗
Akron @ Western Michigan -6.9 138.6 26% 79–68 ✓
UC Davis @ UC San Diego -3.5 148.4 38% 78–71 ✓
Lamar @ Stephen F. Austin +10.8 143.9 85% 72–102 ✓
Alcorn State @ Alabama State -0.6 135.6 39% 57–52 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Eastern Michigan -5.8 144.8 30% 85–63 ✓
Mississippi State @ Alabama +13.4 150.2 87% 73–81 ✓
Valparaiso @ Illinois State +3.8 135.3 63% 69–60 ✗
DePaul @ Marquette +10.6 140.0 81% 68–61 ✗
LSU New Orleans @ Nicholls +9.0 150.1 77% 62–86 ✓
McNeese @ Houston Christian +8.8 158.4 63% 74–71 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Wake Forest -1.0 137.5 50% 75–76 ✗
LSU @ Kentucky -1.8 145.8 46% 69–82 ✗
Texas Southern @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -8.0 140.2 18% 66–57 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.