Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
← All models

Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
29–22 on winners spread MAE 10.2 51 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
St. Bonaventure @ Duquesne -7.4 128.4 19% 65–61 ✓
Marist @ Rider +1.8 135.8 55% 76–67 ✗
Northwestern @ Penn State +5.4 148.8 70% 78–81 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Siena +2.1 132.8 56% 40–47 ✓
Jacksonville @ North Alabama +2.5 140.1 62% 54–76 ✓
Saint Mary's @ San Francisco +4.7 131.2 67% 67–63 ✗
Santa Clara @ Loyola Marymount +6.7 131.1 75% 72–69 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Northridge -15.4 147.1 13% 80–66 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Riverside +3.4 123.7 61% 63–70 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Irvine +18.5 132.2 90% 44–67 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Virginia +10.0 137.2 79% 62–64 ✓
USC @ California -9.5 138.8 17% 76–68 ✓
Colorado @ Washington State -9.8 141.0 18% 70–59 ✓
Kansas City @ Oral Roberts +5.3 139.9 73% 58–60 ✓
South Dakota @ Western Illinois -8.9 138.7 20% 84–74 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Lipscomb +2.8 140.6 63% 56–71 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ UTEP +1.7 140.6 58% 73–55 ✗
Hawai'i @ Cal State Fullerton +2.9 150.5 65% 76–53 ✗
Missouri @ Tennessee +7.0 133.7 77% 73–64 ✗
North Dakota @ South Dakota State +14.1 147.6 87% 74–85 ✓
Denver @ North Dakota State +15.9 139.3 87% 58–84 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Murray State +8.1 139.5 79% 63–72 ✓
Long Beach State @ California Baptist +5.5 157.6 78% 75–96 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Utah Tech -11.0 141.6 15% 81–46 ✓
Pacific @ Gonzaga +20.8 153.3 90% 49–95 ✓
Pepperdine @ BYU +14.0 149.0 87% 54–65 ✓
Oregon State @ Oregon +16.0 144.7 88% 75–64 ✗
Rutgers @ Indiana +5.7 138.4 70% 74–70 ✗
Davidson @ Massachusetts +2.7 150.8 54% 69–60 ✗
James Madison @ Northeastern +6.2 137.9 74% 79–72 ✗
Norfolk State @ Coppin State -1.0 152.5 51% 77–81 ✗
Delaware @ UNC Wilmington +6.0 137.7 74% 67–62 ✗
Delaware State @ Morgan State +18.1 158.3 90% 83–99 ✓
Stony Brook @ NJIT +3.6 138.5 65% 56–44 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Gardner-Webb +16.5 143.2 90% 62–74 ✓
Lehigh @ Holy Cross +5.3 145.3 65% 82–74 ✗
Radford @ UNC Asheville +0.6 146.5 51% 68–76 ✓
Presbyterian @ High Point +4.6 129.1 69% 57–81 ✓
UAlbany @ New Hampshire +2.1 137.3 60% 83–64 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee -7.7 134.7 20% 68–52 ✓
Towson @ Hofstra +5.8 140.7 74% 69–74 ✓
Fordham @ Rhode Island +17.0 131.6 90% 42–52 ✓
Army @ Navy +2.8 135.4 61% 87–78 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Bradley -4.5 131.4 26% 69–56 ✓
Utah @ Washington -4.6 139.9 33% 79–83 ✗
Memphis @ East Carolina -0.8 131.8 38% 80–53 ✓
Nevada @ Wyoming -1.5 147.8 44% 88–93 ✗
Valparaiso @ Illinois State +2.4 135.3 60% 70–66 ✗
Notre Dame @ Miami +1.5 140.2 57% 73–59 ✗
Boston University @ Lafayette +9.8 150.0 80% 64–61 ✗
American University @ Loyola Maryland +3.2 143.0 64% 81–79 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.