He took it all too far, but boy could he play guitar. "Ziggy Stardust" - David Bowie
← All models

Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
88–38 on winners spread MAE 8.0 126 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Saint Louis @ Loyola Chicago +1.8 139.3 63% 69–78 ✓
Cornell @ Harvard -4.6 150.1 37% 73–75 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Yale +18.0 150.1 91% 71–72 ✓
Princeton @ Brown -1.3 139.8 38% 56–70 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Green Bay -5.6 143.4 31% 73–60 ✓
Ohio @ Kent State +5.4 143.9 75% 75–76 ✓
Fairfield @ Saint Peter's +4.1 130.3 74% 52–65 ✓
Marist @ Siena +1.1 132.7 56% 65–64 ✗
Merrimack @ Manhattan +0.1 137.8 49% 75–79 ✓
Rider @ Iona +4.5 137.4 70% 74–71 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Sacred Heart -0.0 155.4 51% 99–90 ✓
UCLA @ Indiana -1.4 140.2 42% 72–68 ✓
Wright State @ Milwaukee +5.5 150.9 76% 80–88 ✓
Nevada @ San José State -3.6 138.6 39% 73–58 ✓
Arkansas @ Texas A&M +7.4 139.1 81% 61–69 ✓
Clemson @ Florida State -2.6 143.4 37% 72–46 ✓
Rice @ Tulane +4.3 138.5 70% 78–81 ✓
Miami @ Pittsburgh +14.2 153.6 87% 65–74 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Massachusetts -0.8 138.8 51% 73–59 ✓
DePaul @ Xavier +10.5 148.9 84% 68–85 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Furman +1.3 136.2 61% 58–50 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ George Mason +6.4 131.3 78% 57–58 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee +13.1 138.9 86% 76–81 ✓
Wisconsin @ Purdue +5.3 147.5 69% 94–84 ✗
Illinois State @ Indiana State -2.0 156.5 42% 76–85 ✗
Bucknell @ Lafayette -0.3 140.4 42% 75–69 ✓
Colgate @ Boston University -0.9 135.4 54% 91–93 ✗
Chicago State @ Le Moyne +4.4 150.3 76% 75–80 ✓
Saint Francis @ Central Connecticut +11.7 135.1 87% 67–83 ✓
UMass Lowell @ New Hampshire -7.7 150.0 30% 79–80 ✗
UMBC @ Bryant +11.2 162.2 85% 79–81 ✓
Army @ Navy +1.8 144.3 64% 54–61 ✓
Houston @ Arizona +0.7 138.0 43% 62–58 ✗
High Point @ Winthrop -1.6 159.0 41% 88–66 ✓
West Virginia @ Baylor +6.4 137.7 81% 71–74 ✓
Virginia @ Virginia Tech -0.2 131.9 34% 73–70 ✓
Boston College @ NC State +8.6 145.1 82% 62–70 ✓
Holy Cross @ Lehigh +3.2 139.5 67% 60–72 ✓
Washington @ Penn State +5.9 148.0 74% 75–73 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Long Island University +0.4 135.8 53% 58–62 ✓
Binghamton @ NJIT -2.6 136.5 34% 75–71 ✓
Vermont @ Maine +4.9 129.0 66% 65–61 ✗
Georgetown @ Butler +5.1 139.5 70% 86–97 ✓
James Madison @ Coastal Carolina -10.0 131.2 22% 74–73 ✓
App State @ Georgia State -3.3 137.4 39% 65–70 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Robert Morris +2.2 154.6 67% 69–76 ✓
Charleston @ North Carolina A&T -6.2 153.7 29% 69–59 ✓
Drexel @ William & Mary +1.1 146.4 59% 59–72 ✓
Monmouth @ Towson +7.5 136.6 81% 54–80 ✓
Hofstra @ Hampton +0.8 133.2 57% 49–67 ✓
Jacksonville @ North Alabama +5.2 143.8 72% 79–92 ✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota +4.4 155.2 74% 77–88 ✓
Denver @ North Dakota State +12.5 149.3 86% 84–89 ✓
Samford @ Wofford +0.2 145.6 45% 76–68 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Ball State +10.4 148.7 82% 83–89 ✓
Bowling Green @ Buffalo -0.9 151.7 50% 63–59 ✓
Duquesne @ Dayton +10.1 136.5 82% 76–77 ✓
UConn @ Seton Hall -14.3 130.8 16% 68–69 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Western Michigan -6.6 149.0 32% 70–78 ✗
Morehead State @ Western Illinois -0.5 134.7 48% 67–72 ✗
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State -10.6 148.6 22% 93–55 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ South Carolina Upstate -5.3 156.4 35% 96–87 ✓
UCF @ Colorado +1.0 152.2 57% 63–76 ✓
Southern Miss @ UL Monroe -2.6 142.6 38% 74–81 ✗
Grand Canyon @ UT Arlington -4.7 151.3 32% 82–75 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Lindenwood +1.8 139.4 60% 78–81 ✓
Lamar @ East Texas A&M -5.8 133.1 27% 65–55 ✓
Missouri @ Georgia +0.7 143.9 52% 87–74 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Stonehill +3.9 134.0 60% 73–85 ✓
The Citadel @ Western Carolina +4.6 140.8 75% 73–76 ✓
Toledo @ Eastern Michigan -2.6 153.7 45% 73–80 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Sam Houston +0.2 146.4 50% 76–78 ✓
Stony Brook @ Northeastern +10.3 141.8 84% 60–71 ✓
Auburn @ Alabama -0.6 169.4 44% 94–85 ✓
Stanford @ Duke +19.6 139.8 90% 70–106 ✓
Cincinnati @ Iowa State +10.4 139.5 86% 70–81 ✓
East Carolina @ Charlotte -0.9 146.4 43% 75–59 ✓
California @ Georgia Tech +3.6 145.5 70% 88–90 ✓
La Salle @ Rhode Island +7.9 151.8 78% 71–86 ✓
George Washington @ Davidson +3.1 138.4 64% 74–67 ✗
Norfolk State @ Maryland Eastern Shore -13.9 139.2 14% 75–63 ✓
Howard @ Delaware State +3.3 153.0 67% 69–90 ✓
Wyoming @ Colorado State +10.5 134.6 84% 53–88 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ American University +4.6 135.3 69% 51–72 ✓
Minnesota @ USC +7.0 142.4 78% 69–66 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State -5.3 135.8 27% 65–61 ✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern +4.4 149.0 70% 75–78 ✓
Texas State @ South Alabama +6.6 141.2 78% 65–70 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Bakersfield +8.3 139.9 75% 54–91 ✓
Campbell @ Delaware -1.2 145.6 42% 96–91 ✓
Queens University @ Eastern Kentucky +4.8 157.0 78% 80–86 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Louisiana Tech +0.8 136.5 52% 70–68 ✗
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville +10.0 153.3 81% 72–75 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Northwestern State +2.9 129.8 59% 70–68 ✗
Coppin State @ North Carolina Central +11.3 141.3 87% 59–71 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +5.2 142.0 72% 55–69 ✓
Nicholls @ SE Louisiana +2.1 141.4 63% 81–84 ✓
VMI @ Mercer +3.2 151.6 66% 80–71 ✗
Tennessee State @ SIU Edwardsville +4.6 144.1 71% 72–84 ✓
UT Martin @ Eastern Illinois -2.2 135.7 34% 72–68 ✓
Morgan State @ South Carolina State +11.1 155.8 86% 62–90 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southeast Missouri State +6.7 144.0 79% 69–83 ✓
Cornell @ Dartmouth -0.0 156.4 50% 49–88 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Portland State -0.4 148.9 45% 71–82 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Lipscomb +10.6 141.8 83% 68–82 ✓
Stetson @ Austin Peay +11.2 146.5 86% 63–76 ✓
Texas Southern @ Grambling +0.2 135.9 48% 67–60 ✗
Alcorn State @ Bethune-Cookman +4.2 134.8 59% 78–74 ✗
Houston Christian @ UT Rio Grande Valley +3.1 143.4 65% 52–76 ✓
North Florida @ Central Arkansas -3.4 158.0 39% 83–84 ✗
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss +6.1 149.1 69% 81–71 ✗
Presbyterian @ Longwood +6.8 145.1 79% 77–68 ✗
UTSA @ Tulsa -0.0 145.6 50% 76–80 ✗
North Carolina @ Syracuse -5.6 158.8 29% 88–82 ✓
Wake Forest @ SMU +8.2 144.8 78% 77–66 ✗
Fordham @ Richmond +0.0 148.2 54% 66–70 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Southern +11.4 151.4 85% 60–72 ✓
Jackson State @ Florida A&M -0.3 144.8 42% 71–76 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Brown +6.4 143.6 75% 72–82 ✓
Columbia @ Harvard +0.5 147.8 54% 75–87 ✓
McNeese @ New Orleans -14.1 140.8 15% 78–64 ✓
Villanova @ Providence -1.5 139.0 47% 62–75 ✗
LSU @ Oklahoma +6.9 148.2 78% 82–79 ✗
Pacific @ Oregon State +15.9 141.7 87% 65–79 ✓
Alabama State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -9.6 151.5 18% 75–63 ✓
West Georgia @ Bellarmine +0.2 150.1 46% 81–76 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.