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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
37–18 on winners
spread MAE 8.0
55 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-7.6 | 144.1 | 21% | 52–51 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.6 | 154.7 | 52% | 73–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.7 | 146.2 | 64% | 73–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.6 | 134.8 | 89% | 60–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.0 | 139.3 | 81% | 81–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.4 | 143.1 | 77% | 71–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.2 | 155.1 | 31% | 85–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.0 | 140.6 | 15% | 82–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 155.5 | 74% | 79–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.1 | 159.0 | 52% | 78–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 138.3 | 64% | 74–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.5 | 145.4 | 85% | 57–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 139.9 | 64% | 69–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.4 | 141.0 | 36% | 68–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.2 | 139.7 | 70% | 71–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.5 | 141.4 | 62% | 69–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.0 | 158.9 | 84% | 85–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.8 | 132.1 | 28% | 64–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.8 | 157.6 | 80% | 84–95 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 150.3 | 65% | 87–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+16.8 | 143.0 | 90% | 67–88 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.7 | 141.3 | 25% | 70–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.6 | 149.0 | 72% | 65–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.4 | 147.9 | 85% | 58–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.0 | 144.1 | 86% | 83–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.3 | 135.3 | 45% | 76–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.9 | 136.0 | 77% | 48–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.0 | 145.2 | 40% | 67–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.2 | 130.8 | 63% | 47–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.3 | 144.1 | 29% | 78–89 | ✗ |
|
|
+26.0 | 157.5 | 91% | 55–107 | ✓ |
|
|
-12.5 | 145.5 | 15% | 84–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.7 | 136.6 | 88% | 56–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.7 | 138.0 | 30% | 66–49 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.7 | 145.0 | 35% | 79–84 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.0 | 162.8 | 48% | 83–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 148.5 | 53% | 80–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.5 | 149.1 | 60% | 86–83 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.7 | 137.9 | 23% | 73–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.6 | 127.4 | 76% | 61–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.1 | 141.7 | 65% | 68–60 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.8 | 165.7 | 27% | 94–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.6 | 144.5 | 75% | 74–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.1 | 147.7 | 35% | 80–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 127.9 | 59% | 61–60 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.7 | 129.6 | 60% | 65–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.3 | 140.8 | 81% | 73–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.3 | 143.7 | 78% | 58–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 144.3 | 52% | 68–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.9 | 136.1 | 82% | 83–93 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.9 | 148.4 | 34% | 68–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.9 | 143.7 | 77% | 70–92 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.8 | 158.3 | 82% | 78–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.6 | 154.3 | 77% | 79–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.0 | 158.9 | 86% | 75–101 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.