Betting Lines
| Spread | SEA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | TAR +180 SEA -215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +3 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | SEA -7.3 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEA -6.3 (+9.3) | 130.0 (+1.0) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEA -5.4 (+8.4) | 131.1 (-0.1) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SEA -5.3 (+8.3) | 132.3 (-1.3) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEA -6.8 (+9.8) | 132.1 (-1.1) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2025 | SEA 91 – 54 TAR |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TAR 69 – 66 SEA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | TAR 82 – 77 SEA |
| Jan 20, 2023 | SEA 67 – 47 TAR |
| Jan 23, 2022 | SEA 76 – 68 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 8-8 |
| Home | 10-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 1-14 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.2 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#319) | 0.7 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#262) | -0.65 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#268) | -0.52 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#268) | 0.476 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.54 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 25.3% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.7% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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