Don't you understand that's not my problem? "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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89–37 on winners spread MAE 8.1 126 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Saint Louis @ Loyola Chicago +1.7 143.0 56% 69–78 ✓
Cornell @ Harvard -6.4 154.2 28% 73–75 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Yale +22.2 150.0 98% 71–72 ✓
Princeton @ Brown -1.7 142.1 44% 56–70 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Green Bay -3.7 144.1 37% 73–60 ✓
Ohio @ Kent State +6.1 140.6 71% 75–76 ✓
Fairfield @ Saint Peter's +7.3 129.6 75% 52–65 ✓
Marist @ Siena +2.6 131.3 59% 65–64 ✗
Merrimack @ Manhattan -0.7 140.1 48% 75–79 ✗
Rider @ Iona +6.6 135.7 72% 74–71 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Sacred Heart -0.9 156.3 47% 99–90 ✓
UCLA @ Indiana -3.1 139.1 39% 72–68 ✓
Wright State @ Milwaukee +6.4 152.4 72% 80–88 ✓
Nevada @ San José State -4.3 140.8 35% 73–58 ✓
Arkansas @ Texas A&M +7.7 137.6 76% 61–69 ✓
Clemson @ Florida State -4.9 145.5 33% 72–46 ✓
Rice @ Tulane +5.0 138.3 67% 78–81 ✓
Miami @ Pittsburgh +16.1 160.3 93% 65–74 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Massachusetts -2.2 140.4 42% 73–59 ✓
DePaul @ Xavier +11.9 151.0 86% 68–85 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Furman +1.6 135.7 56% 58–50 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ George Mason +5.1 134.3 68% 57–58 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee +13.0 138.5 88% 76–81 ✓
Wisconsin @ Purdue +4.7 147.5 66% 94–84 ✗
Illinois State @ Indiana State -1.9 162.9 43% 76–85 ✗
Bucknell @ Lafayette -0.1 141.3 50% 75–69 ✓
Colgate @ Boston University -0.7 131.8 47% 91–93 ✗
Chicago State @ Le Moyne +6.3 149.9 72% 75–80 ✓
Saint Francis @ Central Connecticut +12.2 135.4 87% 67–83 ✓
UMass Lowell @ New Hampshire -9.0 152.5 21% 79–80 ✗
UMBC @ Bryant +12.8 172.0 88% 79–81 ✓
Army @ Navy +2.7 149.5 60% 54–61 ✓
Houston @ Arizona -3.5 140.3 37% 62–58 ✓
High Point @ Winthrop -3.9 168.7 36% 88–66 ✓
West Virginia @ Baylor +6.6 138.1 73% 71–74 ✓
Virginia @ Virginia Tech +0.2 125.5 51% 73–70 ✗
Boston College @ NC State +9.5 143.1 81% 62–70 ✓
Holy Cross @ Lehigh +4.6 141.8 66% 60–72 ✓
Washington @ Penn State +7.8 151.5 76% 75–73 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Long Island University +3.1 138.7 61% 58–62 ✓
Binghamton @ NJIT -1.7 131.9 44% 75–71 ✓
Vermont @ Maine +7.3 121.5 75% 65–61 ✗
Georgetown @ Butler +4.5 139.6 66% 86–97 ✓
James Madison @ Coastal Carolina -8.0 133.1 23% 74–73 ✓
App State @ Georgia State -4.8 138.9 33% 65–70 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Robert Morris +2.3 159.6 58% 69–76 ✓
Charleston @ North Carolina A&T -7.1 159.0 26% 69–59 ✓
Drexel @ William & Mary +1.6 147.9 56% 59–72 ✓
Monmouth @ Towson +8.0 135.9 77% 54–80 ✓
Hofstra @ Hampton +0.8 127.6 53% 49–67 ✓
Jacksonville @ North Alabama +6.4 143.1 72% 79–92 ✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota +6.1 163.0 71% 77–88 ✓
Denver @ North Dakota State +15.7 150.6 92% 84–89 ✓
Samford @ Wofford -0.9 151.2 47% 76–68 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Ball State +11.9 147.2 86% 83–89 ✓
Bowling Green @ Buffalo -0.9 154.6 47% 63–59 ✓
Duquesne @ Dayton +9.6 137.1 81% 76–77 ✓
UConn @ Seton Hall -13.4 133.7 11% 68–69 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Western Michigan -7.3 151.2 25% 70–78 ✗
Morehead State @ Western Illinois -0.6 131.0 48% 67–72 ✗
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State -12.2 151.1 13% 93–55 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ South Carolina Upstate -4.9 161.2 33% 96–87 ✓
UCF @ Colorado +0.0 155.7 50% 63–76 ✓
Southern Miss @ UL Monroe -3.7 143.9 37% 74–81 ✗
Grand Canyon @ UT Arlington -4.8 155.7 33% 82–75 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Lindenwood +3.8 141.4 63% 78–81 ✓
Lamar @ East Texas A&M -6.0 133.4 29% 65–55 ✓
Missouri @ Georgia -0.5 144.6 48% 87–74 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Stonehill +7.0 135.2 74% 73–85 ✓
The Citadel @ Western Carolina +7.0 141.0 74% 73–76 ✓
Toledo @ Eastern Michigan -3.5 160.7 38% 73–80 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Sam Houston +0.4 155.9 52% 76–78 ✓
Stony Brook @ Northeastern +11.7 143.5 86% 60–71 ✓
Auburn @ Alabama -2.4 175.0 41% 94–85 ✓
Stanford @ Duke +20.8 139.3 97% 70–106 ✓
Cincinnati @ Iowa State +10.2 136.1 82% 70–81 ✓
East Carolina @ Charlotte -1.9 144.6 43% 75–59 ✓
California @ Georgia Tech +3.9 149.8 64% 88–90 ✓
La Salle @ Rhode Island +9.4 153.4 80% 71–86 ✓
George Washington @ Davidson +3.0 143.3 61% 74–67 ✗
Norfolk State @ Maryland Eastern Shore -14.7 142.9 9% 75–63 ✓
Howard @ Delaware State +2.5 159.7 59% 69–90 ✓
Wyoming @ Colorado State +9.8 134.8 81% 53–88 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ American University +5.6 137.1 70% 51–72 ✓
Minnesota @ USC +7.8 139.9 76% 69–66 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State -3.8 134.9 36% 65–61 ✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern +6.7 148.6 73% 75–78 ✓
Texas State @ South Alabama +7.2 138.8 74% 65–70 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Bakersfield +9.1 142.4 80% 54–91 ✓
Campbell @ Delaware -0.7 149.2 47% 96–91 ✓
Queens University @ Eastern Kentucky +4.5 158.3 66% 80–86 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Louisiana Tech +1.1 137.4 54% 70–68 ✗
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville +9.7 155.0 81% 72–75 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Northwestern State +3.6 124.7 63% 70–68 ✗
Coppin State @ North Carolina Central +13.9 142.1 90% 59–71 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +7.4 147.8 75% 55–69 ✓
Nicholls @ SE Louisiana +3.1 142.6 61% 81–84 ✓
VMI @ Mercer +6.8 153.9 73% 80–71 ✗
Tennessee State @ SIU Edwardsville +5.0 147.6 67% 72–84 ✓
UT Martin @ Eastern Illinois -1.8 136.7 44% 72–68 ✓
Morgan State @ South Carolina State +12.9 158.2 88% 62–90 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southeast Missouri State +8.1 145.5 77% 69–83 ✓
Cornell @ Dartmouth -3.2 162.4 39% 49–88 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Portland State -0.7 152.3 47% 71–82 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Lipscomb +9.2 137.8 80% 68–82 ✓
Stetson @ Austin Peay +11.4 142.8 85% 63–76 ✓
Texas Southern @ Grambling +1.5 136.2 55% 67–60 ✗
Alcorn State @ Bethune-Cookman +7.3 133.0 75% 78–74 ✗
Houston Christian @ UT Rio Grande Valley +5.5 147.3 69% 52–76 ✓
North Florida @ Central Arkansas -5.4 166.5 31% 83–84 ✗
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss +4.8 149.3 67% 81–71 ✗
Presbyterian @ Longwood +7.8 145.0 76% 77–68 ✗
UTSA @ Tulsa -0.9 150.6 47% 76–80 ✗
North Carolina @ Syracuse -8.0 162.2 23% 88–82 ✓
Wake Forest @ SMU +8.7 144.4 79% 77–66 ✗
Fordham @ Richmond +0.7 149.8 53% 66–70 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Southern +13.8 152.6 90% 60–72 ✓
Jackson State @ Florida A&M -0.2 144.7 49% 71–76 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Brown +8.2 142.7 77% 72–82 ✓
Columbia @ Harvard +0.2 151.0 51% 75–87 ✓
McNeese @ New Orleans -18.0 145.8 5% 78–64 ✓
Villanova @ Providence -2.4 143.8 41% 62–75 ✗
LSU @ Oklahoma +6.6 150.5 73% 82–79 ✗
Pacific @ Oregon State +17.1 141.8 94% 65–79 ✓
Alabama State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -10.0 165.6 18% 75–63 ✓
West Georgia @ Bellarmine +1.2 151.5 54% 81–76 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.