And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–19 on winners spread MAE 8.1 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UNLV @ Fresno State -7.5 151.1 25% 52–51 ✓
Belmont @ Southern Illinois +1.0 162.1 54% 73–68 ✗
Idaho @ Eastern Washington +3.9 150.7 64% 73–75 ✓
UC Davis @ UC San Diego +18.3 132.7 95% 60–85 ✓
Elon @ UNC Wilmington +7.0 141.4 74% 81–70 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Chattanooga +4.5 146.2 66% 71–78 ✓
Akron @ Central Michigan -4.9 156.7 33% 85–82 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Mississippi Valley State -12.7 144.2 12% 82–70 ✓
Michigan State @ Illinois +6.3 157.6 72% 79–65 ✗
Kentucky @ Texas -1.3 162.2 45% 78–82 ✗
TCU @ Arizona State +5.8 134.7 70% 74–70 ✗
Princeton @ Yale +11.9 148.3 86% 57–84 ✓
Idaho State @ Montana State +4.2 139.5 65% 69–74 ✓
Marshall @ Louisiana -6.1 144.0 29% 68–79 ✗
Troy @ Arkansas State +5.6 140.9 69% 71–70 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Riverside +1.0 142.3 54% 69–81 ✓
Cal Poly @ Cal State Northridge +11.1 172.5 84% 85–89 ✓
Seattle U @ Tarleton State -7.3 128.2 25% 64–67 ✗
Omaha @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +8.1 159.7 77% 84–95 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky +3.3 152.1 62% 87–77 ✗
South Carolina @ Florida +18.4 141.2 95% 67–88 ✓
Utah Valley @ Southern Utah -6.9 142.3 27% 70–68 ✓
Kansas State @ BYU +7.9 150.7 76% 65–80 ✓
Weber State @ Montana +9.8 149.4 81% 58–65 ✓
Utah Tech @ California Baptist +11.9 144.5 86% 83–86 ✓
Liberty @ UTEP -3.0 135.0 39% 76–69 ✓
Florida International @ New Mexico State +8.0 136.7 77% 48–76 ✓
Kansas @ Utah -8.0 146.1 23% 67–74 ✗
Boise State @ San Diego State +1.3 133.9 55% 47–64 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Portland -6.6 144.4 27% 78–89 ✗
Pepperdine @ Gonzaga +27.7 159.0 99% 55–107 ✓
San Francisco @ San Diego -14.5 146.3 9% 84–61 ✓
Washington State @ Saint Mary's +15.0 141.9 91% 56–77 ✓
UC Irvine @ Hawai'i -7.2 137.1 26% 66–49 ✓
Memphis @ Wichita State -8.0 152.6 23% 79–84 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ Temple -0.6 169.5 48% 83–81 ✓
Siena @ Sacred Heart +1.5 152.1 56% 80–73 ✗
Michigan @ Ohio State +2.5 154.0 59% 86–83 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Canisius -6.9 144.4 26% 73–66 ✓
Bradley @ Drake +5.4 129.1 69% 61–59 ✗
Youngstown State @ Cleveland State +4.8 137.7 67% 68–60 ✗
South Dakota State @ South Dakota -7.4 174.7 25% 94–91 ✓
Iona @ Quinnipiac +8.9 145.9 79% 74–79 ✓
Manhattan @ Fairfield -4.0 155.0 36% 80–67 ✓
Marist @ Merrimack +4.5 119.9 66% 61–60 ✗
Rider @ Saint Peter's +5.4 123.0 69% 65–66 ✓
Creighton @ St. John's +6.2 142.9 71% 73–79 ✓
Missouri State @ UIC +8.4 148.4 78% 58–63 ✓
Nebraska @ Northwestern +1.4 142.0 55% 68–64 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Oakland +11.2 130.3 84% 83–93 ✓
Wright State @ Green Bay -7.4 154.7 25% 68–79 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Milwaukee +9.5 142.3 81% 70–92 ✓
South Florida @ UAB +9.3 160.4 80% 78–85 ✓
Utah State @ New Mexico +3.9 162.2 64% 79–82 ✓
Iowa @ Maryland +13.2 163.8 88% 75–101 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.