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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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91–29 on winners spread MAE 8.7 120 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Villanova @ Georgetown -10.4 144.0 17% 70–54 ✓
VCU @ Saint Louis -6.8 144.2 27% 95–85 ✓
Siena @ Saint Peter's +16.0 120.2 93% 53–75 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Rider +0.7 150.3 53% 57–61 ✓
Manhattan @ Iona +14.1 144.5 90% 63–73 ✓
Niagara @ Fairfield +8.1 154.8 77% 65–63 ✗
Canisius @ Marist +5.4 129.9 69% 55–78 ✓
Dartmouth @ Columbia +14.1 133.5 90% 63–73 ✓
Yale @ Pennsylvania -4.7 143.0 34% 76–62 ✓
Brown @ Princeton +17.0 142.8 94% 63–72 ✓
Jacksonville @ Queens University +4.2 154.4 65% 65–74 ✓
North Florida @ Kennesaw State +2.8 169.0 60% 82–81 ✗
Ohio @ Toledo +6.7 163.6 73% 83–85 ✓
New Mexico @ San Diego State +3.5 153.2 62% 70–81 ✓
Texas Tech @ Iowa State +8.8 141.0 79% 74–82 ✓
Texas A&M @ Alabama +12.5 160.5 87% 75–100 ✓
Wake Forest @ Virginia +1.1 129.5 54% 47–49 ✓
TCU @ Kansas State -1.0 149.6 46% 75–72 ✓
Penn State @ Nebraska +7.3 155.1 75% 49–68 ✓
Creighton @ Butler -1.7 157.7 44% 79–57 ✓
Richmond @ George Washington -6.1 150.5 29% 90–74 ✓
Texas @ Houston +13.7 130.4 89% 61–82 ✓
Navy @ Boston University +5.2 127.7 68% 65–74 ✓
Florida @ Georgia -2.8 161.8 40% 88–82 ✓
Saint Francis @ Fairleigh Dickinson +7.3 148.6 75% 74–93 ✓
VMI @ The Citadel +13.8 146.1 90% 51–76 ✓
Robert Morris @ Wright State +8.6 171.7 78% 71–101 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Detroit Mercy -12.6 148.5 13% 83–69 ✓
UAlbany @ UMBC +0.0 176.7 50% 75–80 ✓
Fordham @ Dayton +19.0 140.8 96% 70–78 ✓
Virginia Tech @ North Carolina +10.9 151.4 84% 81–96 ✓
Duke @ Florida State -6.1 152.7 29% 76–67 ✓
BYU @ Oklahoma State -12.1 147.7 14% 83–93 ✗
Valparaiso @ Missouri State +11.7 141.5 86% 74–82 ✓
Longwood @ Presbyterian -2.8 142.9 40% 81–73 ✓
Towson @ Hampton -12.5 135.3 13% 61–67 ✗
Northeastern @ Hofstra +8.2 142.3 77% 62–82 ✓
Delaware @ North Carolina A&T -11.4 145.7 15% 62–54 ✓
Campbell @ Drexel +13.5 131.6 89% 66–81 ✓
Army @ Holy Cross -1.7 127.8 44% 59–53 ✓
Arkansas @ Mississippi State +13.9 144.3 90% 67–71 ✓
Massachusetts @ La Salle -7.4 155.6 25% 81–82 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Lehigh +10.5 142.2 83% 70–75 ✓
Bucknell @ Colgate +12.4 135.1 87% 50–62 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Stetson +5.6 142.9 70% 60–61 ✓
Stonehill @ Le Moyne +11.4 143.2 85% 67–75 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Kent State +9.9 154.4 82% 47–85 ✓
Akron @ Buffalo -15.5 136.8 8% 73–62 ✓
Samford @ Mercer -10.0 150.6 18% 84–88 ✗
Marshall @ Coastal Carolina -3.6 154.7 37% 67–74 ✗
Wisconsin @ Iowa -1.3 157.6 45% 86–88 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ Duquesne +2.0 144.6 57% 56–66 ✓
Marquette @ UConn +6.5 146.7 72% 53–81 ✓
Rice @ Tulsa +5.5 146.9 69% 82–93 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Alabama A&M +16.3 137.1 93% 57–80 ✓
Long Island University @ Merrimack +16.4 135.0 93% 68–83 ✓
Youngstown State @ Cleveland State -2.4 152.3 42% 73–81 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Oakland +24.0 144.9 99% 59–107 ✓
Vermont @ Maine -3.3 123.4 38% 68–57 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Stephen F. Austin +10.1 148.5 82% 63–62 ✗
Florida International @ Louisiana Tech +19.3 142.1 96% 68–75 ✓
New Mexico State @ Western Kentucky +12.3 152.3 87% 58–72 ✓
LSU @ South Carolina +5.3 142.8 68% 64–63 ✗
Davidson @ St. Bonaventure +7.3 135.8 75% 80–81 ✓
Bowling Green @ Eastern Michigan -5.5 146.5 31% 60–69 ✗
Ball State @ Miami (OH) +3.0 143.2 61% 59–80 ✓
Binghamton @ NJIT -0.3 138.7 49% 69–55 ✓
Texas State @ Southern Miss +3.8 129.2 64% 74–78 ✓
Kansas @ Oklahoma +1.5 144.2 56% 67–57 ✗
North Carolina Central @ Howard +2.8 146.1 60% 82–90 ✓
Miami @ Boston College +1.3 153.6 55% 77–85 ✓
Cincinnati @ UCF +0.0 136.5 50% 76–74 ✗
Stony Brook @ Monmouth +3.9 147.0 64% 61–84 ✓
Lafayette @ American University +6.1 129.0 71% 68–62 ✗
South Carolina State @ Norfolk State +8.6 143.8 78% 67–71 ✓
Delaware State @ Coppin State -6.4 128.5 28% 66–56 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Wagner +3.8 132.0 63% 63–53 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Western Carolina +8.8 138.1 79% 65–70 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Little Rock +10.9 151.0 84% 62–80 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Bryant +2.4 153.0 59% 86–77 ✗
North Dakota State @ Denver +5.6 170.2 69% 71–77 ✓
McNeese @ Nicholls -10.7 146.5 16% 74–47 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alcorn State +3.6 154.1 63% 54–69 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Santa Barbara +2.4 142.1 59% 71–77 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Morgan State +4.9 145.2 67% 65–70 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ South Carolina Upstate -0.9 146.0 47% 73–65 ✓
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville +13.2 144.5 88% 55–86 ✓
Western Illinois @ Tennessee State +2.0 130.9 57% 68–61 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ SIU Edwardsville +12.5 136.8 87% 76–80 ✓
Morehead State @ UT Martin -4.3 149.9 35% 82–88 ✗
Lindenwood @ Eastern Illinois +9.7 132.5 81% 57–72 ✓
Arkansas State @ South Alabama -2.3 159.1 42% 76–73 ✓
Louisiana @ App State +6.4 141.4 72% 73–85 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +12.9 133.8 88% 63–86 ✓
Houston Christian @ SE Louisiana +12.9 141.4 88% 78–81 ✓
Lipscomb @ Central Arkansas -9.3 158.1 20% 85–68 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC Davis +6.4 137.5 72% 67–61 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Sacramento State -6.3 148.3 28% 80–75 ✓
Idaho State @ Idaho +0.1 136.8 50% 53–55 ✓
Weber State @ Eastern Washington +3.3 149.5 62% 90–84 ✗
Illinois @ Maryland -4.1 141.4 35% 85–80 ✓
Syracuse @ Georgia Tech -1.3 150.0 45% 60–65 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alabama State +9.4 151.5 80% 80–74 ✗
UL Monroe @ Troy +13.1 146.5 88% 57–85 ✓
Lamar @ New Orleans -7.0 161.9 26% 94–72 ✓
Utah State @ Colorado State +3.3 149.3 62% 55–75 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee +23.7 140.2 98% 53–88 ✓
Baylor @ West Virginia -13.1 150.9 12% 94–81 ✓
Kentucky @ Auburn +10.7 169.1 83% 70–59 ✗
Stanford @ Washington State +9.5 148.0 81% 59–72 ✓
Grambling @ Texas Southern +6.1 126.5 71% 66–63 ✗
Dartmouth @ Cornell +21.7 141.7 98% 80–89 ✓
Harvard @ Columbia +4.5 147.3 66% 80–75 ✗
Georgia Southern @ James Madison +23.4 156.6 98% 80–87 ✓
Northwestern State @ Incarnate Word +5.4 148.3 69% 81–61 ✗
Brown @ Pennsylvania +6.7 144.5 73% 71–64 ✗
UTEP @ Middle Tennessee -2.5 126.7 41% 90–96 ✗
Louisville @ Pittsburgh +14.8 147.7 91% 59–86 ✓
Southern @ Prairie View A&M -3.3 143.4 38% 77–71 ✓
Florida A&M @ Jackson State +10.3 146.5 83% 55–77 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.