I'm the all night drug prowling wolf who looks so sick in sun / I'm the white man in the Palais "White Man in Hammersmith Palais" - The Clash
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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47–17 on winners spread MAE 8.4 64 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Temple @ Florida Atlantic +21.2 154.5 97% 68–80 ✓
SMU @ Tulane -4.8 160.6 33% 87–79 ✓
Wichita State @ East Carolina +1.4 137.2 55% 55–68 ✓
UTSA @ Charlotte +15.7 151.5 92% 70–79 ✓
Towson @ William & Mary -7.3 131.5 25% 61–52 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ UNC Wilmington +21.3 149.9 97% 54–73 ✓
Hofstra @ Drexel +4.7 130.8 67% 77–79 ✓
Delaware @ Elon -9.0 150.5 21% 67–73 ✗
Charleston @ Northeastern -2.8 156.0 40% 77–73 ✓
Campbell @ Monmouth +9.6 138.1 81% 87–88 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Le Moyne +0.0 143.7 50% 64–69 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Long Island University +0.3 155.3 51% 84–82 ✗
Merrimack @ Stonehill -10.6 130.7 17% 66–63 ✓
Wagner @ Saint Francis -3.4 122.3 38% 65–63 ✓
Louisiana @ Old Dominion -6.0 146.1 29% 68–60 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina +2.6 156.1 59% 75–82 ✓
New Hampshire @ Vermont +8.6 138.4 78% 54–70 ✓
Maine @ Bryant +6.9 138.9 73% 72–77 ✓
NJIT @ UAlbany +9.4 153.5 80% 58–83 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Louisiana Tech +11.5 126.3 85% 58–63 ✓
UTEP @ Western Kentucky +7.5 146.6 75% 80–90 ✓
Abilene Christian @ UT Rio Grande Valley -0.3 152.6 49% 87–79 ✓
Florida International @ Sam Houston +9.1 151.2 80% 56–70 ✓
New Mexico State @ Middle Tennessee +1.2 128.0 55% 69–76 ✓
Memphis @ North Texas +4.1 138.0 65% 66–76 ✓
Winthrop @ Radford -0.3 143.1 49% 85–69 ✓
Morehead State @ Little Rock -4.5 147.0 34% 68–69 ✗
Texas State @ South Alabama +1.6 137.1 56% 55–72 ✓
Georgia State @ James Madison +15.0 156.2 91% 63–83 ✓
South Dakota @ Omaha +10.2 153.4 82% 84–91 ✓
South Dakota State @ Kansas City -1.4 147.4 45% 67–72 ✗
North Dakota State @ Oral Roberts +5.3 157.0 68% 73–60 ✗
Tarleton State @ UT Arlington +3.3 142.4 62% 80–78 ✗
Minnesota @ Purdue +18.1 148.9 95% 76–84 ✓
Western Illinois @ Tennessee Tech -3.0 128.5 39% 62–55 ✓
Southern Indiana @ UT Martin +11.4 155.1 85% 68–77 ✓
Lindenwood @ SIU Edwardsville +11.7 132.3 86% 63–91 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Eastern Illinois +8.5 135.2 78% 57–75 ✓
UL Monroe @ Southern Miss +8.9 139.7 79% 68–59 ✗
Arkansas State @ Troy +5.8 159.5 70% 82–71 ✗
Austin Peay @ Central Arkansas -5.5 142.9 31% 77–67 ✓
Seattle U @ Southern Utah -3.4 151.3 38% 78–68 ✓
Lipscomb @ North Alabama -0.3 161.5 49% 70–75 ✗
Stanford @ Washington +6.9 164.8 73% 65–85 ✓
Colorado @ UCLA -3.2 135.5 39% 60–64 ✗
Gonzaga @ Loyola Marymount -11.1 148.4 16% 91–74 ✓
North Dakota @ Denver +7.6 164.7 75% 92–78 ✗
Utah Tech @ Grand Canyon +20.7 148.5 97% 61–73 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Davis +3.8 152.4 64% 78–74 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State +2.8 132.0 60% 73–58 ✗
Weber State @ Idaho -7.3 137.5 25% 70–69 ✓
Idaho State @ Eastern Washington +10.9 147.0 84% 82–88 ✓
California @ Washington State +11.0 144.7 84% 65–84 ✓
Pacific @ Santa Clara +23.3 149.0 98% 53–79 ✓
Portland @ San Diego +10.0 156.3 82% 66–71 ✓
Utah Valley @ California Baptist +4.4 128.6 66% 69–46 ✗
Hawai'i @ Cal Poly -6.8 132.3 27% 80–51 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Bakersfield +0.5 143.8 52% 76–71 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ UC San Diego +8.0 146.0 77% 46–61 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Fullerton +3.5 131.1 63% 81–73 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Portland State +0.6 158.8 52% 72–82 ✓
Pepperdine @ Saint Mary's +19.7 131.5 96% 59–103 ✓
Utah @ USC -4.4 155.4 34% 64–68 ✗
Harvard @ Cornell +11.9 157.8 86% 62–75 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.