He is handing the money / He is serving the food / He knows about your party / He is calling you dude. "Comfort Eagle" - Cake
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–21 on winners spread MAE 10.3 59 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Indiana State @ Southern Illinois -3.9 150.9 36% 69–74 ✗
Radford @ High Point +9.5 151.8 81% 74–99 ✓
Elon @ UNC Wilmington +17.9 151.9 95% 73–72 ✗
Western Michigan @ Central Michigan +4.9 137.9 67% 42–69 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Wofford +0.9 149.2 53% 58–47 ✗
Georgia State @ Old Dominion -0.9 149.0 47% 68–65 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Bellarmine -3.9 144.8 36% 75–65 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC San Diego +11.8 134.7 86% 69–76 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Portland State +9.0 141.6 79% 68–83 ✓
Fresno State @ Boise State +15.6 139.6 92% 66–90 ✓
DePaul @ Providence +22.6 139.7 98% 70–81 ✓
UT Arlington @ UT Rio Grande Valley -6.7 155.5 27% 89–70 ✓
Liberty @ Sam Houston -3.5 141.8 37% 73–83 ✗
NC State @ Clemson +9.2 149.6 80% 78–77 ✗
California @ Washington +10.3 161.2 82% 82–80 ✗
Michigan State @ Michigan -7.4 145.5 25% 73–63 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Milwaukee +1.0 154.7 54% 72–73 ✓
Yale @ Princeton +5.0 140.7 68% 62–73 ✓
South Dakota State @ Omaha +0.3 151.2 51% 85–77 ✗
South Dakota @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +14.8 144.2 91% 80–83 ✓
North Dakota @ Oral Roberts +3.9 150.1 64% 78–65 ✗
California Baptist @ Grand Canyon +13.5 136.0 89% 76–79 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Northridge +1.1 162.8 54% 87–73 ✗
Austin Peay @ North Alabama +3.2 145.1 61% 87–79 ✗
Missouri @ Ole Miss +9.6 144.4 81% 76–79 ✓
Utah Valley @ Southern Utah +0.1 144.6 51% 78–75 ✗
San Francisco @ Loyola Marymount -5.6 141.1 31% 82–59 ✓
Pacific @ Gonzaga +34.5 151.0 100% 76–102 ✓
Seattle U @ Utah Tech -7.1 145.1 26% 66–65 ✓
Montana State @ Montana +8.1 146.6 77% 69–88 ✓
Arizona State @ Arizona +23.7 155.6 98% 60–105 ✓
Colorado @ USC -3.5 153.3 37% 92–89 ✓
Oregon @ Oregon State -6.5 144.4 28% 60–58 ✓
Wyoming @ San José State +1.3 146.0 55% 80–75 ✗
Santa Clara @ San Diego -4.1 152.0 36% 82–69 ✓
Portland @ Pepperdine +8.5 153.1 78% 70–91 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Irvine +16.6 134.7 93% 71–77 ✓
Nevada @ UNLV -1.3 142.2 45% 69–66 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ South Florida -4.8 150.7 33% 86–90 ✗
Wichita State @ Charlotte +7.9 134.4 76% 61–72 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Rhode Island -2.5 145.2 41% 77–67 ✓
Purdue @ Ohio State -9.6 150.4 19% 69–73 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Iona +5.1 129.6 68% 59–53 ✗
UTSA @ Temple +7.2 163.2 74% 77–83 ✓
Tulane @ East Carolina -0.8 154.4 47% 67–81 ✗
Bradley @ Northern Iowa -2.2 143.6 42% 63–74 ✗
Murray State @ Drake +10.5 143.6 83% 72–95 ✓
Belmont @ UIC +1.5 148.8 55% 75–60 ✗
Rider @ Manhattan -1.9 146.4 43% 104–62 ✓
Niagara @ Quinnipiac +7.8 157.3 76% 80–66 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Fairfield +6.0 148.3 71% 80–94 ✓
Canisius @ Siena -8.2 136.4 23% 73–64 ✓
Chattanooga @ Furman +1.5 157.6 56% 65–82 ✓
North Texas @ UAB -1.5 134.1 45% 62–71 ✗
Evansville @ Illinois State +3.2 132.6 62% 79–86 ✓
Northwestern @ Indiana -1.2 144.3 46% 76–72 ✓
Memphis @ SMU +8.7 152.7 79% 79–106 ✓
Seton Hall @ St. John's +7.0 145.3 74% 68–62 ✗
Rutgers @ Minnesota +4.4 129.6 66% 70–81 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.