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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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80–39 on winners spread MAE 8.4 119 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Dayton @ VCU -2.9 133.1 39% 47–49 ✗
San Diego State @ Nevada +0.5 140.0 52% 66–70 ✓
San José State @ Colorado State +18.2 145.9 95% 47–66 ✓
UConn @ Georgetown -16.1 146.8 7% 89–64 ✓
Wisconsin @ Rutgers -6.1 130.4 29% 56–78 ✗
Alabama @ LSU -10.6 168.8 17% 109–92 ✓
Clemson @ Syracuse -3.6 152.0 37% 77–68 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ George Washington -2.4 152.6 41% 81–73 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ IU Indianapolis -14.7 146.8 9% 92–65 ✓
UT Martin @ Western Illinois +3.1 147.5 61% 62–59 ✗
Columbia @ Brown +1.0 147.1 54% 83–69 ✗
Creighton @ Xavier -0.9 152.2 47% 78–71 ✓
Saint Louis @ Saint Joseph's +13.3 156.5 89% 86–87 ✓
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina +15.0 129.5 91% 60–75 ✓
Toledo @ App State +7.2 149.3 74% 104–109 ✓
High Point @ Gardner-Webb -1.5 158.5 45% 78–62 ✓
Monmouth @ Northeastern +0.7 145.2 52% 65–77 ✓
Iona @ Canisius -1.0 145.5 46% 69–73 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Central Connecticut +11.1 152.3 84% 62–71 ✓
Samford @ VMI -20.3 168.7 3% 102–63 ✓
Vermont @ UMBC -9.5 153.3 19% 72–70 ✓
Navy @ Army +1.9 122.8 57% 67–69 ✓
Green Bay @ Youngstown State +9.0 137.7 79% 84–83 ✗
Boston College @ Duke +12.7 152.5 88% 65–80 ✓
Illinois @ Michigan State +2.1 146.7 58% 80–88 ✓
TCU @ Iowa State +10.4 152.2 83% 59–71 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Georgia State +5.3 148.7 68% 53–73 ✓
Central Michigan @ Old Dominion +3.9 140.3 64% 58–57 ✗
Western Michigan @ Southern Miss +5.8 141.9 70% 54–86 ✓
Indiana State @ Missouri State -9.5 155.6 19% 73–71 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Hampton -15.4 151.3 8% 95–65 ✓
Stony Brook @ Campbell -3.7 136.9 37% 77–95 ✗
Hofstra @ North Carolina A&T -9.5 144.4 19% 81–49 ✓
Providence @ Butler +4.5 148.8 66% 72–75 ✓
American University @ Holy Cross -5.6 141.6 31% 56–58 ✗
La Salle @ Richmond +14.2 142.8 90% 65–82 ✓
Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure +7.1 137.6 74% 75–69 ✗
Boston University @ Bucknell +5.0 130.5 68% 77–62 ✗
Fairfield @ Saint Peter's +0.8 132.9 53% 64–62 ✗
Milwaukee @ Robert Morris +2.3 163.7 58% 60–71 ✓
Cornell @ Yale +4.9 155.8 67% 78–80 ✓
Dartmouth @ Harvard +12.5 128.6 87% 59–77 ✓
Bryant @ Binghamton -3.9 149.6 36% 70–69 ✓
Kansas City @ North Dakota +4.2 146.1 65% 65–47 ✗
Omaha @ North Dakota State +1.5 150.8 55% 79–81 ✓
New Orleans @ East Texas A&M +5.4 145.9 69% 83–89 ✓
Central Arkansas @ North Florida +12.8 152.7 88% 79–77 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Florida International +4.7 136.9 67% 68–66 ✗
George Mason @ Davidson +1.3 135.1 55% 57–55 ✗
Ohio @ Arkansas State +3.1 159.8 61% 87–100 ✓
Buffalo @ Georgia Southern +8.5 148.0 78% 82–81 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ UL Monroe +6.7 138.9 73% 76–82 ✓
Northern Illinois @ South Alabama +4.0 157.5 64% 66–75 ✓
West Virginia @ Texas +13.7 144.2 89% 58–94 ✓
South Florida @ Rice -4.1 145.0 35% 69–65 ✓
Winthrop @ Longwood +0.6 142.7 52% 74–84 ✓
Chicago State @ South Carolina State -0.4 139.0 49% 55–78 ✗
Fresno State @ Air Force +1.4 134.8 55% 68–66 ✗
Le Moyne @ Merrimack +8.6 138.8 78% 50–66 ✓
Mercer @ Western Carolina +8.8 137.9 79% 46–79 ✓
North Alabama @ Jacksonville -0.3 149.7 49% 63–67 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ UT Arlington +2.6 150.9 59% 63–71 ✓
Auburn @ Florida -4.3 165.5 35% 65–81 ✗
Drexel @ Charleston +1.8 144.5 57% 70–80 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Morehead State +15.9 131.7 93% 57–69 ✓
Alcorn State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +2.6 171.3 59% 68–56 ✗
North Carolina @ Miami -5.4 157.2 31% 75–72 ✓
Houston @ Cincinnati -7.8 128.4 24% 67–62 ✓
Gonzaga @ Kentucky +3.1 171.7 61% 89–85 ✗
UCF @ Texas Tech +6.3 138.3 72% 59–66 ✓
NC State @ Wake Forest +9.4 151.9 80% 79–83 ✓
East Carolina @ UTSA -1.6 153.3 44% 84–73 ✓
Belmont @ Valparaiso -2.9 150.0 40% 96–78 ✓
Evansville @ Murray State +7.7 140.3 76% 70–73 ✓
UNC Asheville @ South Carolina Upstate -3.1 149.2 39% 77–64 ✓
William & Mary @ Delaware +15.6 146.7 92% 58–69 ✓
Maryland @ Ohio State +3.4 130.2 62% 75–79 ✓
Texas Southern @ Florida A&M -3.7 134.8 37% 78–75 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Mount St. Mary's -0.3 151.9 49% 79–96 ✗
Stonehill @ Saint Francis +3.4 134.1 62% 63–72 ✓
Chattanooga @ UNC Greensboro +3.9 145.3 64% 89–61 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Northern Kentucky +17.2 144.1 94% 67–79 ✓
UMass Lowell @ NJIT -9.5 142.9 19% 64–71 ✗
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota State +6.5 155.5 72% 72–83 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Northwestern State -2.6 137.0 41% 69–59 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Bethune-Cookman +3.4 148.7 62% 78–84 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Utah Valley +5.9 140.9 70% 45–74 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Bakersfield +1.6 128.0 56% 71–73 ✓
Montana State @ Northern Arizona -2.9 142.5 39% 71–76 ✗
Montana @ Northern Colorado +0.2 163.1 51% 71–87 ✓
Kent State @ Troy +6.2 152.1 71% 68–78 ✓
Radford @ Presbyterian -1.6 141.2 44% 73–76 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Lindenwood +1.7 136.3 56% 62–53 ✗
Incarnate Word @ Houston Christian -0.1 151.5 50% 83–86 ✗
Tennessee State @ Southeast Missouri State -7.3 139.2 25% 77–74 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Stetson +3.3 151.8 62% 79–87 ✓
Ball State @ Texas State +3.5 134.3 63% 60–68 ✓
Washington State @ Oregon +1.2 144.9 54% 62–56 ✗
Alabama State @ Grambling +0.5 123.8 52% 68–74 ✓
Colgate @ Loyola Maryland -11.6 130.8 15% 76–62 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Denver -2.2 153.9 42% 77–94 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ McNeese +12.7 138.7 88% 67–74 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Lipscomb +8.7 173.9 79% 95–101 ✓
California Baptist @ Utah Tech -4.2 135.1 35% 78–85 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville State +2.4 143.4 58% 70–59 ✗
Queens University @ Austin Peay +6.1 152.8 71% 76–79 ✓
UCLA @ California +2.3 135.9 58% 61–60 ✗
Baylor @ Kansas +2.4 156.3 58% 61–64 ✓
St. John's @ Marquette +7.6 149.2 75% 75–86 ✓
Akron @ James Madison +5.5 145.6 69% 59–73 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Notre Dame -5.9 129.2 30% 66–74 ✗
Drake @ Bradley +2.5 149.4 59% 74–67 ✗
Georgia @ Arkansas -0.8 150.7 47% 75–78 ✗
Furman @ East Tennessee State -0.1 148.1 50% 65–63 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Princeton +14.1 143.6 90% 70–77 ✓
Tarleton State @ Seattle U +7.2 136.8 74% 82–77 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Louisville +0.2 154.5 51% 67–79 ✓
Michigan @ Nebraska +7.8 157.0 76% 59–79 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Southern +15.0 147.8 91% 62–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.