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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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46–14 on winners spread MAE 8.7 60 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Memphis @ Temple	-8.1	155.0	23%	84–77	✓
William & Mary @ Monmouth	+12.5	146.1	87%	64–68	✓
Stony Brook @ Elon	-3.0	151.0	39%	79–64	✓
Northeastern @ Campbell	-1.3	135.4	45%	86–76	✓
Hofstra @ Hampton	-12.4	147.1	13%	63–59	✓
Drexel @ UNC Wilmington	+2.2	137.5	58%	56–75	✓
Delaware @ Towson	+2.6	132.4	59%	74–62	✗
Iowa @ Penn State	-1.1	166.2	46%	79–89	✗
Saint Peter's @ Quinnipiac	+5.7	132.5	70%	73–84	✓
Manhattan @ Mount St. Mary's	+10.9	144.5	84%	78–82	✓
Marist @ Siena	-9.7	121.5	19%	67–51	✓
Iona @ Niagara	-1.1	152.4	46%	74–71	✓
Rider @ Fairfield	+7.2	151.7	74%	67–84	✓
Merrimack @ Long Island University	-10.8	133.2	16%	82–79	✓
Sacred Heart @ Central Connecticut	+7.0	145.0	74%	70–77	✓
Wagner @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+0.1	140.6	50%	66–62	✗
Le Moyne @ Stonehill	-2.2	144.7	42%	88–57	✓
Samford @ UNC Greensboro	-1.0	158.5	47%	78–69	✓
Green Bay @ Robert Morris	-0.1	140.4	49%	81–76	✓
Oakland @ Northern Kentucky	-1.0	147.6	46%	89–99	✗
Detroit Mercy @ Wright State	+21.5	164.6	97%	85–92	✓
Vermont @ NJIT	-11.9	131.4	14%	61–63	✗
UMass Lowell @ UMBC	-7.4	165.4	25%	93–80	✓
New Hampshire @ Bryant	+4.3	155.8	65%	66–85	✓
North Alabama @ North Florida	+4.3	156.8	65%	79–74	✗
Central Arkansas @ Jacksonville	+9.6	149.4	81%	55–59	✓
Middle Tennessee @ Liberty	+13.9	128.3	90%	53–88	✓
Sam Houston @ Jacksonville State	+4.7	132.7	67%	68–79	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Stephen F. Austin	+15.9	152.4	93%	84–92	✓
Arizona @ Utah	-4.8	161.9	33%	105–99	✓
Arizona State @ Colorado	+14.5	144.3	91%	70–82	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Charleston	+18.4	159.8	95%	58–80	✓
Denver @ South Dakota	-5.2	171.8	32%	86–92	✗
Omaha @ North Dakota	+0.5	144.4	52%	78–99	✓
Oral Roberts @ St. Thomas-Minnesota	+7.8	141.0	76%	63–85	✓
Kansas City @ North Dakota State	+3.5	149.1	63%	78–82	✓
Queens University @ Lipscomb	+10.7	167.0	83%	88–90	✓
Kennesaw State @ Austin Peay	+3.7	158.1	63%	69–85	✓
Tarleton State @ Utah Valley	+2.1	133.2	58%	72–61	✗
Montana State @ Northern Colorado	+6.3	161.8	72%	70–73	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southeast Missouri State	-0.4	136.4	48%	69–88	✗
Little Rock @ Western Illinois	+3.4	144.7	62%	63–60	✗
Tennessee State @ Lindenwood	-6.4	139.3	28%	65–55	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Southern Indiana	+2.7	133.4	60%	81–71	✗
Florida Atlantic @ UAB	-8.3	160.1	22%	73–76	✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Morehead State	+11.7	129.9	86%	68–79	✓
Southern Utah @ Utah Tech	-1.4	154.7	45%	68–70	✗
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Davis	+7.2	131.8	74%	58–71	✓
Portland State @ Weber State	+10.5	139.1	83%	72–84	✓
Montana @ Northern Arizona	-6.4	143.9	28%	94–66	✓
Sacramento State @ Idaho State	+6.8	131.7	73%	40–68	✓
Washington State @ Oregon State	-8.5	140.6	22%	64–58	✓
Washington @ Oregon	+3.6	161.5	63%	80–85	✓
UT Arlington @ California Baptist	+4.1	138.2	65%	63–64	✓
Abilene Christian @ Seattle U	+11.6	146.4	86%	52–75	✓
Cal Poly @ Cal State Northridge	+11.9	141.6	86%	65–78	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Riverside	+3.9	131.3	64%	63–65	✓
UC Irvine @ UC Santa Barbara	-4.2	144.0	35%	76–61	✓
San Francisco @ Pepperdine	-9.3	144.0	20%	80–74	✓
UC San Diego @ Hawai'i	-3.0	136.8	39%	86–94	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.