I got a baby's brain and an old man's heart "I'm Eighteen" - Alice Cooper
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–19 on winners spread MAE 8.3 50 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
LSU @ Tennessee +15.3 148.8 92% 68–88 ✓
Wisconsin @ Michigan -7.2 151.1 26% 68–72 ✗
Alabama @ Auburn +1.5 166.9 55% 81–99 ✓
Louisville @ Syracuse +11.9 151.4 86% 92–94 ✓
Pittsburgh @ NC State +1.0 142.6 54% 67–64 ✗
Army @ Lehigh +9.4 131.0 80% 68–57 ✗
Valparaiso @ Indiana State +22.5 152.2 98% 61–101 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Longwood +10.0 141.0 82% 69–64 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Presbyterian -3.0 147.7 39% 75–77 ✗
Holy Cross @ Lafayette +9.6 132.1 81% 59–75 ✓
Villanova @ Xavier +2.7 145.5 60% 53–56 ✓
Colgate @ Boston University -6.2 128.0 29% 74–64 ✓
Davidson @ Duquesne +5.7 135.8 70% 72–59 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ George Mason +5.4 133.5 69% 85–79 ✗
Massachusetts @ St. Bonaventure +4.9 148.3 67% 73–79 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ American University +11.3 138.2 85% 44–43 ✗
Bucknell @ Navy +1.3 133.6 55% 80–67 ✗
Wofford @ East Tennessee State +2.9 148.1 61% 50–57 ✓
Furman @ Mercer -1.6 147.4 44% 69–78 ✗
The Citadel @ Western Carolina +9.7 138.5 81% 64–71 ✓
Cleveland State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +5.9 155.4 70% 75–72 ✗
Marshall @ Troy +8.8 152.4 79% 66–82 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Louisiana Tech +13.4 146.9 89% 81–76 ✗
UTSA @ Wichita State +10.8 161.7 84% 64–84 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ UL Monroe +5.1 147.7 68% 75–79 ✓
North Texas @ Tulsa -4.0 133.0 36% 68–55 ✓
SMU @ Rice -10.1 140.2 18% 95–69 ✓
Missouri State @ Northern Iowa +4.5 141.7 66% 65–72 ✓
UIC @ Illinois State +1.5 127.3 56% 61–56 ✗
Bradley @ Evansville -8.8 146.5 21% 70–73 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Drake +8.1 140.4 77% 88–92 ✓
Murray State @ Belmont +0.6 150.3 52% 64–69 ✓
Portland @ Gonzaga +26.9 157.7 99% 64–96 ✓
Old Dominion @ Southern Miss +5.2 142.4 68% 73–78 ✓
Georgia State @ Louisiana +9.7 150.2 81% 78–69 ✗
Georgia Southern @ South Alabama +6.5 154.1 72% 65–78 ✓
James Madison @ Arkansas State -6.0 163.9 29% 77–73 ✓
App State @ Texas State -7.8 129.8 24% 56–63 ✗
Creighton @ Providence -2.7 141.9 40% 87–91 ✗
Notre Dame @ Duke +18.0 134.5 95% 53–71 ✓
UCLA @ Stanford +4.6 136.8 66% 82–74 ✗
Nebraska @ Northwestern +2.8 149.7 60% 68–80 ✓
Texas A&M @ Missouri -3.9 140.1 36% 79–60 ✓
Georgia @ Mississippi State +7.4 141.7 75% 62–75 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Eastern Kentucky +5.7 141.9 70% 82–90 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ San Diego -0.3 145.8 49% 77–79 ✗
USC @ California +1.3 153.3 55% 77–83 ✓
Chattanooga @ VMI -13.5 155.3 11% 88–84 ✓
UAlbany @ Binghamton +0.3 158.8 51% 57–69 ✓
Milwaukee @ Youngstown State +12.7 157.8 88% 85–97 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.