Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY -110 BUCK +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUCK +13 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -1.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.2 (+13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -1.5 (-14.5) | 128.7 (+18.3) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUCK -0.1 (-12.9) | 131.9 (+15.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUCK -0.4 (-12.6) | 132.2 (+14.8) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -0.4 (-13.4) | 132.1 (+14.9) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | NAVY 74 – 69 BUCK |
| Feb 9, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 60 BUCK |
| Jan 8, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 55 BUCK |
| Mar 9, 2025 | NAVY 83 – 77 BUCK |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BUCK 85 – 75 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 6-8 |
| Away | 3-13 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#301) | -6.2 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#338) | -1.33 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.64 (#337) | -1.53 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.381 (#350) | 0.441 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.7% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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