Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | RICE +210 SMU -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +26 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -10.4 (-15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (+23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -7.9 (-18.1) | 143.5 (+20.5) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -9.3 (-16.7) | 141.2 (+22.8) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -8.6 (-17.4) | 142.6 (+21.4) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -9.7 (-16.3) | 143.4 (+20.6) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICE | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-10 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#211) | 11.1 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#224) | 1.12 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#230) | 1.71 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#178) | 0.550 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICE | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 43.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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