Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | ILST -200 UIC +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIC +5 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | ILST -1.7 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -1.5 (-6.5) | 132.0 (-15.0) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -1.1 (-6.1) | 129.9 (-12.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -1.1 (-6.1) | 130.9 (-13.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -1.3 (-6.3) | 129.6 (-12.6) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | UIC 83 – 56 ILST |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UIC 63 – 59 ILST |
| Feb 6, 2025 | ILST 81 – 79 UIC |
| Dec 29, 2024 | UIC 73 – 67 ILST |
| Dec 1, 2023 | ILST 69 – 64 UIC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 4-16 |
| Home | 10-6 | 6-9 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 72.3 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#215) | -1.3 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#196) | -1.02 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#191) | -0.64 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#204) | 0.457 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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