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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
23–11 on winners
spread MAE 10.0
34 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Clemson
@
North Carolina
|
+9.4 | 154.6 | 80% | 80–76 | ✗ |
Oklahoma State
@
Houston
|
+24.0 | 125.5 | 99% | 63–79 | ✓ |
Wake Forest
@
Georgia Tech
|
-6.3 | 155.4 | 28% | 80–51 | ✓ |
Florida State
@
Boston College
|
+3.2 | 153.9 | 61% | 63–62 | ✗ |
Indiana
@
Ohio State
|
+8.0 | 144.5 | 77% | 76–73 | ✗ |
Rhode Island
@
George Washington
|
+6.7 | 163.4 | 73% | 88–65 | ✗ |
VCU
@
Fordham
|
-4.8 | 139.4 | 33% | 75–60 | ✓ |
Canisius
@
Niagara
|
+3.1 | 154.4 | 61% | 64–69 | ✓ |
Northern Illinois
@
Miami (OH)
|
+6.4 | 154.8 | 72% | 62–59 | ✗ |
Ohio
@
Ball State
|
-0.6 | 149.3 | 48% | 84–79 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
Akron
|
+15.1 | 133.1 | 92% | 47–68 | ✓ |
Western Michigan
@
Kent State
|
+10.8 | 151.2 | 84% | 61–63 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
Bowling Green
|
+15.4 | 146.5 | 92% | 73–87 | ✓ |
Toledo
@
Eastern Michigan
|
-12.2 | 147.8 | 13% | 91–87 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
Texas
|
-2.8 | 143.6 | 40% | 70–65 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
Saint Joseph's
|
-3.0 | 142.2 | 39% | 94–79 | ✓ |
BYU
@
Oklahoma
|
-4.0 | 148.5 | 36% | 66–82 | ✗ |
UT Martin
@
Little Rock
|
+1.8 | 170.7 | 56% | 57–77 | ✓ |
Butler
@
UConn
|
+12.2 | 153.6 | 87% | 62–71 | ✓ |
Kentucky
@
Vanderbilt
|
-12.1 | 157.2 | 14% | 109–77 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Wyoming
|
-13.0 | 155.9 | 12% | 91–73 | ✓ |
Texas Tech
@
Baylor
|
+7.7 | 153.0 | 76% | 73–79 | ✓ |
Nevada
@
Utah State
|
+6.1 | 147.8 | 71% | 77–63 | ✗ |
Boise State
@
Colorado State
|
+3.9 | 143.4 | 64% | 62–75 | ✓ |
Charlotte
@
South Florida
|
+2.0 | 133.2 | 57% | 69–72 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
Minnesota
|
-4.3 | 137.3 | 35% | 56–59 | ✗ |
Fresno State
@
San José State
|
+3.5 | 143.9 | 62% | 69–57 | ✗ |
San Diego State
@
Air Force
|
-13.3 | 135.4 | 11% | 77–64 | ✓ |
Saint Mary's
@
Pacific
|
-24.4 | 130.3 | 1% | 84–43 | ✓ |
High Point
@
UNC Asheville
|
-0.5 | 160.0 | 48% | 81–86 | ✗ |
Charleston Southern
@
Winthrop
|
+13.9 | 144.5 | 90% | 46–67 | ✓ |
Georgetown
@
Seton Hall
|
+13.5 | 145.9 | 89% | 70–76 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
La Salle
|
+5.3 | 155.0 | 68% | 102–84 | ✗ |
Stetson
@
Bellarmine
|
-2.9 | 140.3 | 39% | 84–77 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.