Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | OU -154 BYU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +16 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | BYU -3.9 (+19.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BYU -0.6 (+16.6) | 147.1 (+0.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BYU -0.9 (+16.9) | 145.7 (+2.3) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BYU -0.7 (+16.7) | 147.1 (+0.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BYU -0.3 (+16.3) | 146.5 (+1.5) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 16-2 |
| Away | 3-6 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#28) | 20.4 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#36) | 2.26 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#29) | 2.79 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#52) | 0.593 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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