Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | USF -133 CLT +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +3 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | USF -2.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -1.7 (+1.3) | 132.7 (+8.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -2.7 (+0.3) | 132.8 (+8.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -2.6 (+0.4) | 133.7 (+7.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -2.4 (+0.6) | 134.2 (+6.8) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USF 86 – 64 CLT |
| Mar 8, 2026 | USF 83 – 60 CLT |
| Jan 23, 2025 | CLT 69 – 61 USF |
| Mar 2, 2024 | USF 76 – 61 CLT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 8-4 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#110) | 5.2 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#84) | 1.11 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#100) | 1.24 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#82) | 0.572 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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