Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | USF -1800 CLT +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +22 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | USF -12.1 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -12.4 (+9.6) | 153.6 (-3.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -12.1 (+9.9) | 149.5 (+0.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -11.9 (+10.1) | 149.6 (+0.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -10.9 (+11.1) | 151.0 (-1.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | USF 83 – 60 CLT |
| Jan 23, 2025 | CLT 69 – 61 USF |
| Mar 2, 2024 | USF 76 – 61 CLT |
| Feb 7, 2024 | USF 72 – 69 CLT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.8 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#48) | -0.5 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#63) | -0.04 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#56) | -0.17 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#35) | 0.500 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 42.6 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 15.6 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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