Betting Lines
| Spread | CLT -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | CLT -188 USF +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +15 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | CLT -1.8 (-16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLT -1.4 (-16.4) | 133.2 (+3.8) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLT -0.4 (-15.4) | 133.6 (+3.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CLT -0.4 (-15.4) | 135.3 (+1.7) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLT -0.5 (-15.5) | 134.3 (+2.7) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USF 86 – 64 CLT |
| Mar 8, 2026 | USF 83 – 60 CLT |
| Jan 23, 2025 | CLT 69 – 61 USF |
| Feb 7, 2024 | USF 72 – 69 CLT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLT | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 16-2 |
| Home | 13-2 | 15-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#109) | 5.9 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#105) | 1.72 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#107) | 1.78 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#63) | 0.592 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLT | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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