Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | CLT +115 USF -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLT +8 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | USF -0.7 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -0.4 (+8.4) | 142.6 (-12.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -0.3 (+8.3) | 141.2 (-11.2) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USF -0.5 (+8.5) | 141.0 (-11.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLT -0.2 (+7.8) | 142.8 (-12.8) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USF 86 – 64 CLT |
| Mar 8, 2026 | USF 83 – 60 CLT |
| Mar 2, 2024 | USF 76 – 61 CLT |
| Feb 7, 2024 | USF 72 – 69 CLT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLT | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-8 | 9-6 |
| Away | 1-12 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#259) | -1.6 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#272) | -0.31 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#266) | -0.49 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#266) | 0.477 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLT | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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