Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | TEX -150 ISU +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +5 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | ISU -3.4 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -0.1 (-5.1) | 142.4 (-7.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -0.3 (-5.3) | 141.3 (-6.3) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -0.2 (-4.8) | 143.0 (-8.0) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -0.2 (-4.8) | 143.9 (-8.9) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2023 | TEX 72 – 54 ISU |
| Jan 18, 2023 | ISU 78 – 67 TEX |
| Feb 5, 2022 | TEX 63 – 41 ISU |
| Jan 15, 2022 | ISU 79 – 70 TEX |
| Mar 3, 2021 | TEX 81 – 67 ISU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 18-0 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.9 | 61.5 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#33) | 19.2 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#42) | 2.23 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.38 (#39) | 2.59 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#47) | 0.595 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 26.5% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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