Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +16 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -23.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.1 (+16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -18.3 (-2.3) | 130.7 (+11.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -16.6 (-0.6) | 127.9 (+14.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -20.4 (-4.4) | 132.1 (+9.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -20.3 (-4.3) | 132.6 (+9.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | HOU 82 – 75 OKST |
| Feb 5, 2025 | HOU 72 – 63 OKST |
| Dec 31, 2024 | HOU 60 – 47 OKST |
| Dec 19, 2021 | HOU 72 – 61 OKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-5 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 4-14 |
| Home | 17-0 | 10-8 |
| Away | 7-3 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.6 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 23.6 (#1) | 3.1 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.32 (#3) | 0.02 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.19 (#3) | 0.28 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.662 (#3) | 0.478 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 39.0% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.1% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.6% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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