Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -7500 OKST +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +9 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -25.8 (-16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -19.2 (-10.2) | 135.4 (-0.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -20.4 (-11.4) | 132.7 (+2.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -22.2 (-13.2) | 134.6 (+0.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -22.7 (-13.7) | 136.1 (-1.1) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | HOU 82 – 75 OKST |
| Dec 31, 2024 | HOU 60 – 47 OKST |
| Feb 7, 2024 | HOU 79 – 63 OKST |
| Dec 19, 2021 | HOU 72 – 61 OKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-5 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 7-13 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-4 |
| Away | 10-0 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 25.7 (#2) | 3.0 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#11) | 0.75 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.46 (#7) | 1.00 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.641 (#10) | 0.510 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 32.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.4% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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