Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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11–9 on winners spread MAE 9.6 20 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Miami @ Virginia +3.7 131.2 63% 38–60 ✓
Incarnate Word @ SE Louisiana +7.0 139.3 74% 64–76 ✓
Northwestern State @ Nicholls +11.9 151.0 86% 66–73 ✓
Houston Christian @ New Orleans +3.2 159.1 62% 58–84 ✓
Howard @ Delaware State +0.8 148.9 53% 75–71 ✗
Coppin State @ South Carolina State +11.1 135.0 84% 65–77 ✓
Morgan State @ North Carolina Central +13.6 146.5 89% 79–72 ✗
Norfolk State @ Maryland Eastern Shore -8.6 133.4 22% 60–69 ✗
East Texas A&M @ McNeese +20.7 135.7 97% 51–77 ✓
Grambling @ Alcorn State +3.8 138.5 64% 78–67 ✗
Florida A&M @ Alabama State +10.9 136.2 84% 53–62 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama A&M -0.9 152.7 47% 68–72 ✗
Kansas @ Kansas State -5.1 144.7 32% 70–75 ✗
Idaho @ Sacramento State +3.7 134.3 63% 61–45 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Prairie View A&M +6.2 167.2 71% 74–75 ✓
Southern @ Jackson State +0.2 147.6 51% 72–63 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Portland State -3.2 147.1 39% 90–77 ✓
Ole Miss @ South Carolina +5.2 137.3 68% 65–68 ✓
Rutgers @ Maryland +7.0 118.9 74% 56–53 ✗
DePaul @ St. John's +24.1 145.3 99% 57–85 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.