Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | ALCN -188 GRAM +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +11 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | ALCN -3.6 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -0.9 (-11.9) | 135.5 (+9.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -1.1 (-12.1) | 133.6 (+11.4) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -0.7 (-11.7) | 135.9 (+9.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -1.4 (-12.4) | 136.8 (+8.2) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | GRAM 74 – 50 ALCN |
| Feb 4, 2025 | ALCN 60 – 53 GRAM |
| Jan 31, 2023 | ALCN 63 – 60 GRAM |
| Feb 1, 2022 | GRAM 80 – 73 ALCN |
| Feb 9, 2021 | GRAM 67 – 62 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 7-3 | 9-3 |
| Away | 7-14 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#319) | -10.0 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#291) | -1.10 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#296) | -1.27 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#281) | 0.455 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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