Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | UMES +320 NORF -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMES +9 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -8.4 (+17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -7.7 (+16.7) | 129.4 (-0.4) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -7.7 (+16.7) | 130.0 (-1.0) | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -7.7 (+16.7) | 130.2 (-1.2) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -8.1 (+17.1) | 129.9 (-0.9) | 23% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NORF 70 – 66 UMES |
| Jan 13, 2026 | UMES 74 – 70 NORF |
| Mar 12, 2025 | NORF 77 – 70 UMES |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NORF 75 – 63 UMES |
| Jan 4, 2025 | NORF 81 – 59 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMES | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-20 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 11-3 |
| Home | 9-4 | 15-0 |
| Away | 0-15 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.1 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 68.6 |
| Massey | -15.2 (#354) | -3.4 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.94 (#353) | -0.07 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.86 (#358) | -0.23 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.347 (#361) | 0.483 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMES | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.9% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.0% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 33.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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