Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | BALL +100 OHIO -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +5 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | OHIO -0.4 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -0.7 (-4.3) | 144.8 (+18.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -0.3 (-5.3) | 146.3 (+16.7) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -0.1 (-5.1) | 148.8 (+14.2) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -0.2 (-4.8) | 147.7 (+15.3) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | OHIO 69 – 57 BALL |
| Jan 17, 2026 | BALL 76 – 71 OHIO |
| Jan 15, 2025 | OHIO 86 – 71 BALL |
| Mar 9, 2023 | OHIO 90 – 70 BALL |
| Jan 11, 2023 | OHIO 76 – 71 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-7 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#244) | -0.3 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#246) | -0.41 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#253) | -0.37 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#265) | 0.465 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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