Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
| Money | SBU -195 MASS +162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +6 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -4.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -2.8 (+3.2) | 142.6 (+9.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -3.5 (+2.5) | 143.2 (+8.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -3.6 (+2.4) | 143.6 (+8.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -3.8 (+2.2) | 143.5 (+8.5) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2025 | SBU 73 – 72 MASS |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SBU 73 – 59 MASS |
| Feb 24, 2024 | SBU 75 – 67 MASS |
| Mar 4, 2023 | MASS 71 – 60 SBU |
| Dec 31, 2022 | SBU 83 – 64 MASS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 20-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#73) | 7.1 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#106) | 0.88 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#99) | 1.25 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#92) | 0.559 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 37.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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